China Drying Network News learned from the 2012 China Polyurethane Industry Chain Investment and Development Forum that due to the global economic downturn, the domestic polyurethane market has shrunk, exports have been blocked, and production has been oversupply, and the pressure on the front has increased significantly. However, experts predict that under the stimulus of the introduction of the national favorable policies, the industry will gradually emerge from the fourth quarter from the fourth quarter through comprehensive measures such as structural adjustment, downstream innovation, expansion of domestic demand, and strengthening of exports. This sunrise industry will regain its momentum. After more than 10 years of development, China has become the world's largest polyurethane producer. The pace of upgrading of the polyurethane industry is relatively stable, and the level of technological innovation continues to increase. At the same time, domestic isocyanate main raw materials such as diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyether polyol (PPG) have expanded too quickly. Taking raw material TDI as an example, due to environmental pressures in Europe and the United States and the rise of emerging markets, global TDI production is shifting to China. In 2011, the total global TDI production capacity reached 2.57 million tons, and Asia was 1.3 million tons, including China's 760,000 tons, ranking first in the world. In 2011, China’s actual production was 480,000 tons and apparent consumption was 560,000 tons. Obviously, China's TDI has a lot of excess capacity. At the end of 2011, the domestic TDI market price was about 18,000 yuan per ton, which was close to the manufacturer's cost line. In the first half of this year, due to the weak overall demand of the downstream market, the price market was still at a low level. Under the impact of the financial crisis in 2008 and the European debt crisis, polyurethane production encountered severe challenges such as underemployment and declining investment returns. Since October last year, the domestic polyurethane industry has been transformed from a "positive price transmission" driven by an increase in the prices of upstream raw materials to a "reverse price suppression" that is eroded by downstream demand. From the perspective of polyurethane products, the total global polyurethane output in 2011 was 18 million tons, of which China's output was nearly 7 million tons, accounting for about 38% of the world's total. Its main varieties are soft foam, hard foam, synthetic leather slurry, sole stock solution, elastomers, spandex, paints, adhesives, and sealants. It is predicted that by 2016 China's polyurethane production capacity will be 11 million tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the world's total output value of more than 3,000 billion yuan. The growth of production capacity mainly comes from corporate projects such as BASF, Wanhua, Bayer, and Huntsman. In the face of new issues such as excess polyurethane production capacity and shrinking market, Zhu Changchun, secretary general of the China Polyurethane Industry Association, told the reporter at the meeting: “Because it is a sunrise industry, we should “sparse†the problem and “block†it. The key is to maintain The industry's pool of "living water" and the overcapacity are relative. As long as we control the upper reaches and widen the downstream, the prospects are still good. Zhu Changchun pointed out that we must do a good job of "draining" the industry from three aspects. The first is to make early warning of industrial development. Although the Chinese government proposed to vigorously develop the seven strategic emerging industries during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the market tends to have unexpected accidents, and it is necessary to promptly inform the industry of risks. Some experts predict that based on the current growth trend of production capacity and apparent consumption, it is expected that in 2015 China's TDI production capacity will be over 50%, and PPG production capacity will be over 40%. Therefore, projects on enterprises must be more cautious. The second is to make every effort to expand the domestic demand market, increase industrial concentration, and extend and expand the industrial chain. The application of polyurethane materials is very extensive. Through innovative R&D and enterprises to develop win-win cooperation, the materials are more widely used in building energy-saving, automotive and new energy vehicles, environmental protection, electrical and electronic, furniture decoration, wind power, high-speed rail and other fields. The third is to insist on products "going out" and guide enterprises to export to emerging economies. For example, domestic MOKA products have the best price/performance ratio in the market and should be the target for export. Some experts at the forum suggested that the signs of a rebound in the domestic polyurethane market have already emerged. Huang Maosong, a famous expert in the field of polyurethane materials in China, said that due to the “11·15†fire, polyurethane external insulation materials were put into the “cold palace†for nearly two years. With various efforts, the State Council promulgated the “Opinions on Strengthening and Improving Fire Protection Work†at the end of last year. The latest Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed that by 2020, the nation’s newly-built buildings should achieve 75% energy saving in the east and 65% in the central and western regions. It is proposed to implement energy-saving reforms for 40 billion square meters of existing buildings. In addition, the new “Technical Requirements and Evaluation Methods for Exterior Thermal Insulation System†and “Classification of Burning Performance of Building Materials and Products†have been submitted for review and are expected to be introduced in the near future. Huang Maosong said that these good news all provide a stage for polyurethane foam insulation materials to show their glory again. Enterprises should seize the opportunity. Zhang Jie, professor of East China University of Science and Technology, introduced that the footwear industry is a large application of polyurethane materials. In the first half of this year, China exported 5.428 billion pairs of shoes, with an output value of 19.06 billion US dollars, a double-digit growth year-on-year. In the second half of the year, the country may also issue new energy subsidy policies and the second round of new policies for autos to the countryside, which will promote the extensive use of polyurethane materials. Since polyurethane was invented in 1937, the polyurethane market has grown at a rate of 1.5 to 2 times the world economic GDP growth rate; isocyanate raw materials can pull downstream industries that are four times their own production value. Zhu Changchun said: "If by 2016, the output value of polyurethane in China will reach more than 3,000 billion yuan, and the output value of downstream industries will exceed 1.20 billion yuan. Therefore, all parties should boost their confidence and work together to eliminate dangers and create a polyurethane industry. Better tomorrow."
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