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From the beginning of January, the rising international oil price once broke through the $80 checkpoint, reaching a high of 84.45 U.S. dollars per barrel on January 11, but it took another week to retreat and dive to around 74 U.S. dollars.
At the close of February 1, the New York Mercantile Exchange's crude oil futures for delivery in March rose 1.54 US dollars to settle at 74.43 US dollars a barrel. The London Brent Brent crude oil futures market for March delivery rose by $1.65 to settle at $73.11 a barrel.
“If the international oil price can be maintained below the current US$74 price until February 13, then the rate of change in the three places of crude oil will be negatively negative by 4% on February 14. If the international oil price falls lower than the US$74, The days of negative 4% will come earlier,†Zhong Jian, chief analyst of Eastern Oil and Gas Network, told reporters.
Zhong Jian said that even if the prices are not adjusted due to holidays during the Spring Festival, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places may continue to decline to 4% in the second half of the year after the end of the Spring Festival holidays. If there is no unexpected event in the international market, during the month of February, the domestic refined oil market is likely to usher in a drop in oil prices.
Liao Kayi, an analyst at CBI, told reporters that at present, the international crude oil price decline is expected to continue for some time. Although the current domestic oil price movement is still 22 working days, but if the international oil prices remain The current price, then the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will exceed -4% on February 22.
The monitoring data from CBI indicated that as of February 1, the average moving average price of crude oil for 22 consecutive working days in the international three places was still 2.43% higher than the previous increase in oil price adjustment.
"Everything depends on the future trend of international oil prices. If international oil prices can fall by another 4 US dollars before the Spring Festival, then the breakthrough of -4% will be without suspense, but this is basically difficult, that is to say, the domestic oil price adjustment before the Spring Festival. The possibility is very small." Liao Kaixi said.
In 2009, the domestic refined oil price experienced a total of 8 adjustments, of which 5 were raised and 3 decreased. The latest price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission was on November 10, 2009, when domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were raised by 480 yuan/ton. Since then, domestic oil prices have not been adjusted, and it has been more than two months since.
“This time the oil price adjustment was separated by such a long time because the international oil price has been rising and falling. Whether it is rising or falling, the rate has been difficult to break through 4%, so the conditions for adjusting domestic refined oil prices do not have the conditions.†Say.
The "Administrative Measures on Oil Price (Trial)" promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission stipulates that when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices may be adjusted accordingly.
It is worth noting that Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price division of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stated that in 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission will make necessary adjustments to the details of the "finished oil pricing mechanism." This includes whether the 22 working days reflected in the society are too long and whether the price adjustment can reflect the supply and demand of the market and the needs of consumers.
"If the mechanism is adjusted, we can consider shortening the time to 14 days and reducing the margin to 3% at the same time. This will speed up the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices, and the domestic oil price will become even closer to the international market, with an increase in the number of adjustments. People will be more accustomed to it," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, told reporters.
Although domestic product oils do not currently have price adjustment conditions, the current gas stations in Beijing and Shanghai are all generally promoted. In response, Lin Boqiang said that the refined oil pricing mechanism solves the problem of domestic oil prices linking up with international oil prices. The National Development and Reform Commission sets a ceiling price. As long as the domestic retail price does not exceed this price, it is appropriate to sell as much money as possible. Even if the refined oil pricing mechanism is fine-tuned in the future, the phenomenon of price reductions for gas stations will still exist.
The short-term decline in international oil prices is difficult to break through 4%
Although international oil prices have continued to fall in the past two weeks, many analysts interviewed by reporters have pointed out that according to domestic pricing mechanism for refined oil products, the possibility of domestic oil price cuts before the Spring Festival is very small, and the fastest to wait until the Spring Festival.