The light truck is the largest branch of China's commercial vehicle sector. In the next five years, what kind of trend will China's light trucks show?

Combined with the implementation of national macroeconomic policies and regulations, as well as the escalation of consumer demand, the trend of the target market capacity is judged as follows: Annual capacity has shown an upward trend year-on-year. The future development advantages of light trucks: urbanization is accelerating, light vehicles will become the main force of urban logistics, and secondary and tertiary market development will stimulate the growth of light truck market, lighter vehicle purchase and operating costs, tax and fee reform, and the advantages of agricultural vehicles will no longer exist. The user switches to a light car.

Future light truck ownership forecast by region

Demand for commercial vehicles in populous provinces such as Henan, Liaoning, Anhui and Sichuan will continue to increase. In addition, second- and third-tier cities such as Henan, Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan will undertake manufacturing industries in the first-tier coastal cities, and the light cargo market capacity will increase.

Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces entered the mature stage of the market, and the growth point mainly concentrated on the increment of vehicle renewal. In particular, under the influence of a series of stimulus policies of the country, economical light trucks and micro-cargoes have developed rapidly in these regions in the traditional markets of agricultural vehicles such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Sichuan, and the trend of light trucks replacing agricultural vehicles has become more apparent.

The continuous emergence of a large number of private economy and emerging economies in China will play a better role in promoting the market. In particular, the markets below the prefecture-level cities will become a new force for the market in 2011.

Future light-bulb product demand forecast forecast high and low-end demand forecast

The middle and low grades have been the main selling market for the light truck industry for a long time. A large number of users have abandoned agricultural vehicles for low-end light trucks, making the low-end light trucks a very high share.

At present, the demand in some economically developed regions has been shifting rapidly towards the mid-to-high end. In the future, the domestic share of low-end products will decline, and the share of mid-end products will rise.

The economical light trucks represented by low-end and light-end light trucks account for about 90% of the pure light truck market. The development of the Chinese economy, especially the accelerating urbanization process and the increase in the demand for replacement of agricultural vehicles, have a large capacity in the low-end light truck market. High-end light trucks will continue to grow for a long period of time as China's economic growth mode changes and consumption upgrades. It is expected that the annual growth rate will remain at over 20% in the future to meet the needs of the Chinese market.

Tonnage needs prediction

From the tonnage point of view, the current lighter tonnage structure is relatively stable, mainly concentrated in the 2.0 tons and 2.5 tons; this part of the city's logistics light trucks, accounting for most of the market capacity, it is expected that the next 3 tons and above light trucks will have Ascending trend, light trucks will show a trend of increase in size. The 1.5-2 ton low tonnage light truck will continue to achieve rapid growth to replace the agricultural vehicle market. Therefore, the development trend of future light trucks is to extend to both high and low directions.

Sub-price forecast

From the standpoint of product prices, the average price of light-duty truck products has increased, which is mainly due to the increase in costs caused by the upgrade of emission regulations and the increase in the average price driven by the expansion of mid- to high-end light trucks.

Judging from the price level, the market capacity of mid- to high-end light trucks with a capacity of RMB 8-11 million and high-end light trucks with a capacity of more than 100,000 has further increased. The low-end light truck market capacity of 30,000 yuan will decline. The upgrading of emission regulations and low profits will lead to the upward extension of the products of some light truck companies.

Future light truck market forecast

With the gradual increase of the light truck market, the profits of the light truck market will be even more impressive. It is estimated that by 2015, the light truck inventory will reach approximately 15 million vehicles.

Future light truck industry policy laws and regulations

It is expected that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will probably implement the emission standard requirements for China's light-duty truck industry above China IV. This will significantly increase production costs for light truck manufacturers. Some companies with poor production technology are likely to be merged or eliminated.

At the same time, the country will continue to promote the reorganization of the light truck industry. Due to the large number of production enterprises in the light truck industry, companies with low annual sales volume will be merged by large-scale enterprises and will form 3-5 large-scale light truck business groups in the future.

Light truck import and export forecast analysis

Exports: From the current analysis of the light truck industry, the volume of light truck exports has been growing significantly, and the impact of the global economic crisis is weakening. It is expected that China's light truck exports will continue to grow at a rate of more than 10% in the next five years.

Although the export situation is excellent, it still cannot cover up the problems. The first is that the regional advantages of China's light trucks are no longer. Although China's light trucks have large export volumes, the current export areas are still concentrated in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. With the full opening of the international market and the rise of developing countries such as India, Vietnam and Indonesia, the original low-cost advantages of China's light trucks have become weaker and weaker. In addition, the access standards of exporting countries have also greatly increased. At the same time, the quality of China's light trucks is not optimistic. As far as the current situation is concerned, the brake system, emissions and noise problems are still very obvious and widespread. This also means that if there is no improvement in technology, the advantage of China's light truck manufacturing that entered the international vision in the form of “low-cost, low-price” will no longer exist.

On the import side, China has a small number of imported light trucks and it is expected that foreign light trucks will not enter the Chinese market in large quantities in the next five years. The main reason is that foreign light trucks are expensive and difficult to accept by light truck users.