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In recent years, according to the development of China's power industry, the author conducted a historical simulation. Studies have shown that China’s economic growth rate has a cyclical character. This simulation is roughly a nine-year cycle, which is more consistent after ten years of testing. According to such a cycle, there can be some reference for economic development and planning.
In terms of energy, China’s energy is a primary energy source. In terms of energy consumption and use of the flow direction, a large part of China’s coal is converted into electricity, and oil is used in the industrial and transportation sectors. Through this flow, we can see the stage of national development and the economic structure of energy demand. According to U.S. power data, the U.S. power generation in 2010 was 412 billion megatons. Our country last year was 429.78 billion kilowatt-hours, which means that in the past year, China had become the world's largest power producer. In view of this situation, it needs to be treated with calmness. The coal power in the United States is 1.8 trillion billion tons, accounting for 45%, while China’s coal power is 3,200 billion, accounting for 80%, and nuclear power, gas power and other energy sources. China still has the highest total coal consumption.
From the aspect of electricity consumption, China’s electricity consumption in 2010 was 3.9 trillion kWh compared with the international standard, while the electricity consumption in the United States was 3.8 trillion kWh, which is a big difference. As we all know, industrial electricity consumption reflects the operating conditions of the real economy. Since the financial crisis, countries in the world have felt the unreliability of the virtual economy and started to favor the real economy. From the perspective of electricity consumption structure, we can also see such an economic structure. . It does not mean that the higher the per capita electricity consumption, the better. We have also seen the confusion and advantages of the United States. First of all, the small coal-fired units in the United States are still in operation. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China turned off 100,000-kilovolt small units, but 50-kilowatt small units are still operating in the United States; secondly, the United States The power grid is still not strong enough, especially when renewable energy is transported from the central United States to the eastern and western regions. Third, the proportion of renewable energy is still relatively low. This is the common perplexity in the US power industry.
The perplexity of the United States in the use of electricity is that the proportion of industrial electricity is too low, which means that the real economy is too low and the virtual economy is too high. The author believes that this is caused by the mistakes of the United States. After the increase in labor costs, the United States has shifted the industry to foreign countries and reduced it. The reduction in the number of jobs in the domestic entity industry, in addition, the United States' electricity efficiency is not too high, the electricity price is cheap, and household electricity is very luxurious. This is not necessarily a good thing. This is one of the puzzles in the development of the US power industry.
Of course, the United States also has advantages: transmission technology, renewable energy power generation technology, and electric vehicle technology. These are all advantages for future development. In addition, it cannot be overlooked that the United States has strong social and technological innovation capabilities.
On the other hand, China's current electric power industry is in the stage of “growing upsetsâ€, which is embodied in the first place. It is the uneven distribution of resources; the second is the lack of grid configuration capabilities; the third is the high proportion of coal and electricity, limited hydropower resources, and nuclear power. The technology is not strong, the electricity price mechanism is not smooth, the proportion of industrial electricity is too high, the efficiency of electricity consumption is not high, and the energy efficiency is not high.
At present, China has certain advantages in UHV technology and strong smart grid technology, and it also has a solid economic foundation in China, which is also an advantage of China's electric power industry.
The inspiration for the development of the U.S. power industry for our country is to adopt a strong real economy and support a part of the fictitious economy in the development process. In terms of electricity use, China should support commercial electricity and domestic electricity consumption through direct data on industrial electricity and the real economy.
Now that our country has become a big power country, how can we move toward becoming a power power? The author believes that we should start with the power supply, optimize the power structure, enhance the configuration of the power grid, and use electricity scientifically and reasonably. This requires smart grid and demand-side management. What is a power power? To be safe and reliable, it is necessary to guarantee supply. It is the need of electricity to protect the national economy from the development of electricity. In addition, it must be green, environmental protection, energy saving, and high efficiency. This “high efficiency†is not only a matter of high efficiency in electricity consumption, but also represents high efficiency, that is, low power consumption. This is a sign of a powerful country in power.
At present, China is very energy-saving and emission-reducing. In our country's energy strategy, we first mentioned the development after saving, and saving first. China's GDP energy consumption in 2010 fell by 19.1% compared with 2005. Although it did not complete 20%, it was also the only one in history that fell by 19.1%. Our country’s current goal is to reduce energy consumption by 16% during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, and the state is formulating some policies. In 2020, China promised that the proportion of non-fossil energy reached 15%, and the carbon intensity was 40% to 45% lower than in 2005. These energy conservation and development are the choices of our country and the main ideas for energy development.
However, it should also be noted that China’s proposed diversification of energy supply cannot fully rely on the import of petroleum. This poses a very large security risk to China. It is also possible to import a portion of electricity from neighboring countries instead of oil, and reducing 100 million tons of oil imports is a huge guarantee for China’s energy security.
The author found a law: the higher the economic development, the higher the people's living standards, the sharper the power load curve. The decrease in load rate will inevitably lead to an increase in power generation energy consumption, especially in North China and North China, where the use of thermal power to adjust the wind will increase the load factor in North China by one percentage point, coal consumption by coal and electricity by 4 g/kWh, and the unit capacity by 1 million. Kilowatts, if 450,000 kilowatts or 500,000 kilowatts are emitted, coal consumption will surely come up. These are all caused by the decrease in the load factor.
From the aspect of demand-side management, China has done a lot of work, especially the introduction of the "demand-side management measures," which has a great role in promoting. In 2010, China passed demand-side management, with industrial electricity savings of 86.3 billion kilowatt-hours, lighting savings of 23 billion kilowatt hours, and household appliances, commercial and office equipment carrying energy-efficient energy-saving labels of 65 billion kwh. These tasks were also done in the United States from 1991 to 2003. This is an effect of their energy saving. It can be seen that the U.S. has invested a lot in this area and the effect is also very good. China needs further efforts.
The best American demand-side management is California. In this regard, the chairman of the U.S. Energy Regulatory Commission is very concerned about China's energy-saving power grids and has expanded to EPPs and energy-efficient power plants through smart grid power-saving technologies. For an energy-efficient power plant, we have a lot of customers, such as EPP with high efficiency motor, EPP with variable frequency speed regulation, EPP with energy saving transformer, and EPP with energy storage. In this case, we will adopt a comprehensive strategy for resource planning at the national level, and consider the establishment of virtual power plants and physical power plants. Through the policy support for energy-saving and demand-side management, electricity consumption is managed.
After preliminary tests, from 2020 to 2030, the national installed capacity will be approximately 1.76 billion kilowatts by 2020. At that time, EPP energy-efficiency power plants can reach 182 million kilowatts. China's wind power and solar energy will reach 10 million kilowatts by 2020, but the electric field with the same capacity in China's virtual power plants is very high. less.
The overall effect can save 347.6 billion kwh in 2020, save 100 million tons of standard coal, and reduce 24,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. China needs a smart grid to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid. It maximises the absorption and delivery of clean energy production, and at the same time maximizes demand-side management and guides users to use electricity scientifically.
In summary, through smart grid and demand side management, more renewable energy sources can be absorbed. In China's smart grid, for example, wind power is unpredictable, but the user's power equipment is adjustable, as long as the user wishes. Like home dishwashers, users put the dishwasher on the grid for control. Through the smart grid, more renewable energy sources can be absorbed and the so-called “garbage electricity†can be absorbed. This can be achieved through the smart grid, so the smart grid can provide a very good platform.
Through the smart grid's rich and colorful life, not only the user's expenditure on electricity costs is reduced, but more importantly, it absorbs more renewable energy, and the wind power is used in the power grid to make peaks as small as possible, and to generate a little more energy. Don't waste a great deal.
Europe has also done a lot of work on smart grids. EU energy commissioners believe that Europe’s future smart grid investment will be 260 billion euros.
In addition, power grid companies also play an important role in the management of demand-side energy-saving emission reductions, and power grid companies are the main players for future management. Power grid companies have started to set up energy-saving service companies in power companies in various provinces to play a role in energy conservation and emission reduction. State Grid Corporation has accumulated a lot of experience in the past five years and has done a lot of work.
The author believes that there are still problems that China needs to solve in the future. This is also a problem that must be solved as China moves from being a major power country to a powerful one: First, the price mechanism looks forward to rationalization; second, the fiscal and tax barriers remain outstanding; and third, the bottleneck of financing is not yet smooth. Fourth, the integrity mechanism has yet to be established.
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Hu Zhaoguang: How to advance to power-powerful countries?
According to the data from American Power, the U.S. electricity generation in 2010 was 412 billion megatons. China's last year was 429.78 billion kWh, which means that in the past year, China had become the world's largest producer of electricity. Now that our country has become a big power country, how can we move toward becoming a power power? The author believes that we should start with the power supply, optimize the power structure, enhance the configuration of the power grid, and use electricity scientifically and reasonably. This requires smart grid and demand-side management.