Investment continues to analyze the market situation of key materials and equipment for lithium batteries

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Capital markets have announced plans to invest in lithium battery industry projects

Statistics show that the first half of 2016, investment in lithium battery industry chain has more than 116 billion yuan, mainly focused on mergers & lithium and capacity expansion. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, there were 40 cases of capital and mergers and acquisitions in the lithium battery industry, 12 materials, 12 equipments, 10 battery and 14 new energy vehicles. According to incomplete statistics, as of August, the planning of fixed assets investment projects in the lithium battery industry has reached nearly 98 billion. It is estimated that the new lithium battery capacity will be about 177Gwh.

Construction of new capacity with lithium batteries will lead to demand for equipment and related materials

From the perspective of the lithium battery industry chain, it mainly includes lithium raw materials, cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, separators, and production equipment. With the construction of new capacity of lithium batteries, it will definitely drive the market demand of the above industries.

The future gap of ternary cathode materials is still large

Due to the outstanding energy ratio advantage of ternary batteries, there are more assembly on passenger cars and special vehicles, while passenger cars with more emphasis on safety performance are still based on lithium iron phosphate. According to the development plan of energy-saving and new energy automobile industry "By 2020, the power battery module has a specific energy of more than 300Wh/kg. The ternary battery is the most promising technical route." According to the data of 15 years, the ternary battery accounted for 58.48% of the power supply configuration of the passenger car, and accounted for 59.14% of the power supply configuration of the special vehicle. From the composition of power lithium battery production in 2015, lithium iron phosphate battery accounts for more than 69%. According to the forecast, although by 2018, the proportion of ternary battery production will exceed the iron system, reaching 36.50 Gwh, it is still difficult to meet downstream demand. Therefore, since last year, core battery companies have begun to expand the production of ternary lithium batteries, resulting in an increase in the ternary material gap.

The anode material will still be based on carbon materials, which will fully benefit from the release of new capacity of lithium batteries.

Thanks to the rapid growth of the power battery market, the output of lithium battery anode materials has increased significantly. According to statistics, the total output of lithium battery anode materials in China was about 72,800 tons in 2015, an increase of 42.7%. According to the current consumption structure of materials, the current market share of natural graphite and artificial graphite is as high as 90%. With the gradual production of new capacity for lithium battery construction, if all production is completed, according to the current proportion of various anode materials, it is estimated that 66,900 tons of artificial graphite anode materials and 113,100 tons of natural graphite anode materials will be added each year in the future. market capacity.

Electrolyte demand will surge and its profitability will remain

From the consumption index of the electrolyte, the amount of electrolyte per watt-hour power battery (1.4 to 1.8 grams) is higher than that of consumer batteries (about 1.1 grams), so as the proportion of power batteries in the entire lithium battery market increases, The growth of the electrolyte is faster than the increase in the capacity of the lithium battery. At present, the national production capacity is about 117,000 tons. If the output of lithium batteries in 15 years is calculated according to 48.60 Gwh, plus the export business, the supply and demand are basically balanced. With the increase in the production and sales of new energy passenger cars and special vehicles, the demand for electrolytes in the future will continue to show a strong trend. If the new capacity of lithium batteries is fully produced, the demand for electrolytes will increase by 287,700 tons, and there will be a large gap in electrolyte production capacity. Under the support of the downstream market, it will still maintain a high level of gross profit margin.

Diaphragm import substitution situation will still exist wet film + coating demand will increase

According to the domestic lithium battery capacity investment plan, with the full production capacity of the new capacity, the diaphragm market is expected to add 4.784 billion square meters. In 2015, China's lithium battery separator production was 628 million square meters, up 49.5% year-on-year. In terms of subdivision, dry diaphragm shipments were 390 million square meters, up 33.1% year-on-year; wet diaphragm shipments were 238 million square meters, up 90.5% year-on-year. The growth rate of the wet diaphragm is greater than that of the dry method. First, the demand is growing rapidly. In 2015, the power battery company represented by BYD began to turn to the wet diaphragm. The proportion of ternary power batteries increased, driving sales of wet coated diaphragms increased, and the proportion of coated diaphragms in wet film increased from 34% in 2014 to 65% in 2015. The wet coating film will be a big trend in the future.

Another profitable high market in the raw material chain of aluminum plastic film lithium battery industry

Due to factors such as quality and safety, the current proportion of soft pack batteries is increasing rapidly. The aluminum plastic film is the key material for the flexible packaging lithium battery cell packaging, and the technical difficulty is far more than the diaphragm, the positive electrode, the negative electrode, the electrolyte and other materials, and the gross profit rate is as high as 60% or more. With the rapid development of the new energy automobile industry chain and the release of new lithium battery capacity, the demand for aluminum battery soft packs for lithium batteries will also increase rapidly in the future, and the market space is huge. According to the current production process of lithium batteries, taking NCM as an example, a 1Gwh battery will require at most 1.63 million square meters of aluminum plastic film. Assume that 50% of the newly invested lithium battery production line will be soft-packed batteries. The annual demand for new aluminum-plastic film will exceed 120 million square meters, and the market value will exceed 2.5 billion yuan. By then, the total market capacity will exceed 5 billion yuan. Due to the limitations of production technology, the global aluminum-plastic composite film manufacturers for lithium batteries are mainly concentrated in Japan and South Korea. At present, the demand for aluminum-plastic film in domestic battery companies is about 4.5 million square meters per month. It is mainly monopolized by DNP, Showa Denko and Topographic Printing, and its external dependence is over 90%. The import substitution pattern of this product will exist within a certain period of time.

risk warning

The policy and the construction of new lithium battery projects failed to meet expectations; after the subsidies fell back, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles changed.

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