The sales growth of passenger vehicles hit a new low in nearly a decade, which is a comment on the auto market mid-term exam this year. According to data from the China Automobile Association, China's auto production and sales volume for January-June 2017 was 13.52528 million units and 13.3359 million units respectively, an increase of 4.64% and 3.81% year-on-year, and the overall increase slowed down. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year were 11,482,700 and 11,253,300, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of only 3.16% and 1.61%, which was the lowest in ten years. There are several reasons for slower growth, but it is hard to avoid being confused by the double-digit growth of automakers.

What kind of expectations will the industry make for the second half of the auto market that has already been on the court? At Gasgoo, the second half of the 2017 car market entitled "Continue to go low or rise against the trend?" In the survey, it attracted nearly 2,000 participants to vote. Together with sample data and expert remarks, we predict the second half of the auto market in 2017.

In the second half of the year, the growth rate of the auto market will still be lower than 5%

In the first half of this year, China’s auto market saw a “micro-growth” of 3.8% due to multiple factors such as a 50% reduction in purchase tax for small-displacement vehicles, advanced overdraft in auto market demand, and subsidy for new energy vehicles. There is a certain gap between the 5% growth rate expectation. Whether or not 5% growth can be achieved throughout the year, performance in the second half of the year is crucial.

Judging from the survey results, more than half of the participants are cautious about the expected growth of the overall auto market in the second half of 2017. Among them, 52% think that the growth of the auto market will still fall below 5% in the second half of the year, and 22% of them even think that There may be zero or negative growth in half a year.

Judging from the current situation, with the advent of hot summer temperatures, July and August began to enter the off-season of the traditional auto market, the auto market under pressure. Fan Yu, director of the Industrial Coordination Department of the China Automobile Dealers Association, pointed out that “July Dealership Inventory Warning Index remains at a high of 52.5%, indicating that the overall automotive inventory pressure is high.” It also stated that some regions are prone to extremes in August. Weather, such as high temperature, heavy rain and other weather will have an impact on the overall auto market, and the overall auto market performance in August is still not optimistic. Although Kim Jong-Koo’s pull was followed, the time was limited and the entire three-quarter auto market was likely to fall into a quarter that hit bottom this year.

In the fourth quarter, the auto market may trigger a new wave of consumer demand before the end of the year. Even so, the overall trend of “micro-growth” in the auto market in the second half of the year is still difficult to break through. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation of Travel Unions, also pointed out that the Spring Festival in 2018 came late, and the driving force for sales growth in the second half of the year was not strong.

Chinese brand sales performance can be expected in the second half of the year

The strong upside of self-owned brands and Japanese brands became a major highlight of the auto market in the first half of the year. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2017, the sales of Chinese brands, German, Japanese, American, Korean and French passenger cars were 4.939 million, 2.275 million, 1.89 million, and 1.352 million, respectively. There were 431,000 vehicles and 188,000 vehicles, which accounted for 43.9%, 20.2%, 17.7%, 12%, 3.8%, and 1.7% of the total passenger car sales.

Among them, the fastest growth in the Japanese market, the passenger vehicle market share increased by 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year. Compared with Japanese, its own brand also achieved a 1.14% increase in market share. This phenomenon will continue in the second half of the year, and 56% of participants said they are optimistic about the market performance of self-owned brands in the second half of the year.

According to incomplete statistics, domestic mainstream self-owned brands will launch as many as 43 models in the second half of the year. In addition to the continued pursuit of Shengpu SUVs to increase market share, new energy vehicles have also become the focus of the “staking races” of various brands. It is reported that the second half of this year, Guangzhou Automobile Chuanxi will launch three new energy vehicles, Chery will launch A00 small ants models, Ariza 5 pure electric models and small SUV pure electric vehicles ... ... in an overwhelming accumulation, carefully After the layout, the market performance of self-owned brands in the second half will be expected.

Geely is expected to impact China's brand sales in the second half of the year

Thanks to the enhancement of product strength and the sales of the main models, a number of independent car manufacturers achieved double-digit sales growth in the first half of the year. Among them, the "dark horse" Geely performed the most eye-catching, in the first half of the total sales of 550,200 new cars, an increase of up to 90%, this sales performance makes its own brand's market share from 6.46% in the first half of last year increased to 11.14 this year over the same period %. At the same time, the company also increased its annual sales target by 10% to 1.1 million units. Similarly, SAIC Motor's passenger vehicle sales achieved 234,000 new vehicle sales in half a year, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 113%; Guangqi Chuanqi has sold 250,000 units in the first half of the year, an increase of 57% year-on-year.

In the second half of the year, who owns the main brand car companies will take the lead? Up to 72% of the participants voted unanimously for Geely Automobile. They believe that Geely will become the most likely car maker to attack the Chinese brand's annual sales championship. It can be foreseen that the sales of Bo Yue, Di Hao and other models will continue to grow at this stage. The entry-level small SUV Vision X1 will also have its potential after several months of warm-up. In the second half of the year, with the introduction of the high-end brand of collarg, the launch of the two SUV models X3 and Geely S1, Geely's market performance in the second half of the year is highly promising.

New energy annual sales target of 700,000 vehicles is seen decline

Will the sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year boost the annual sales target of 700,000 vehicles? The results of the survey are clear, with over 80% of participants seeing the achievement of the annual sales target of 700,000 vehicles.

In the first half of this year, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 14.4% from the same period of last year to 195,000 units, and only 27.9% of the annual sales target was achieved. In the first half of 2016, sales of 170,000 units accounted for 33.53% of the total sales of 507,000 units in the year. . Industry experts pointed out that the sales performance of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2017 was related to the subsidy policy adjustment for new energy vehicles, which caused sales to stagnate in January. At this stage, one phenomenon that should not be overlooked is that as a series of “cheat compensation” incidents gradually subside, China’s new energy auto industry has entered a period of steady development. The steady sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year is an example.

With reference to years of experience, although the new energy vehicle market will usher in a large impulse in the second half of the year, there is still a big gap between the sales volume of less than 200,000 units in the first half of the year and the annual target of 700,000 vehicles, and this year, new energy vehicles will also face “30,000 kilometers”. Affected by such policy factors, it will be very difficult for sales to break out in the second half of the year.