The price of oil is more than 10 yuan per liter is not out of reach international oil prices continue to rise, the domestic oil price linkage raised

In recent years, international oil prices have continued to soar. In May 2003, the international crude oil price was US$25 per barrel. On April 4, 2005, it was US$57.01. On November 21, 2007, it exceeded US$99. On July 11, 2008, it was the highest historical record of US$147.27, and March 2011. The 16th is 98.5 US dollars. The international oil price has been maintained at more than 100 US dollars. It is difficult to reduce prices in the short term. Domestic refined oil prices exceeding 10 yuan per liter are not out of reach.

According to China's refined oil pricing mechanism, the National Development and Reform Commission will adjust the domestic refined oil prices accordingly when the international oil price changes for more than 4% of the mobile weighted average price for 22 consecutive working days. Over the years, with the high international oil prices, domestic oil prices have shown a stepwise growth, with the overall showing a steady upward trend except for a few months after the month. Taking Beijing No. 93 gasoline as an example, it was 2.32 yuan on June 1, 1998, 4.26 yuan on July 23, 2005, 6.43 yuan on September 2, 2009, and 7.45 yuan on March 16, 2011.

Demand only increases, the Middle East turmoil, and oil prices increase

Price is an indicator of how scarce resources are. The rising oil price is essentially a reflection of the contradiction between supply and demand. From the perspective of supply, Earth's proved oil reserves are sufficient for 40 years. The entire Near East has 63.3% of the world's oil reserves. Europe and Central Asia account for 9.2% of oil reserves (only 6% of Russia's). The output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not increase substantially, and the United States, Russia and other countries plan to reduce the oil supply.

From the demand side, the demand for petroleum in the developed countries is not reduced, and the demand in developing countries is increasing. Since the financial crisis continued to recover the global economy, the speed of economic recovery is a major factor affecting the rise and fall of international oil prices, and the world’s major economies, the United States, China’s economic conditions are more optimistic. With the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States in October last year, the global liquidity surplus, the price of gold has risen steadily, and the price of oil has continued to rise. At the same time, the People's Bank of China resumed reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in June 2010, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar continuously. On March 16, 2011, it was 6.57 yuan. China's imports of international crude oil denominated in US dollars will become increasingly expensive. At the same time, due to the excess liquidity caused by foreign exchange purchases in China, the CPI has been pushed up, which has also helped boost the price of oil.

Market expectations also affect oil prices. As we all know, oil is a non-renewable resource, and oil resources will only become less and less as the consumption increases. Although alternative energy sources such as wind power, hydro power, nuclear energy, and solar energy are also under construction, the current global oil market share is still a small percentage, and it is impossible to replace oil in the short term. The recent turmoil in the Middle East and the post-earthquake reconstruction of Japan, which is highly dependent on oil, all have the expectation of rising oil prices.

If the domestic oil price exceeds 10 yuan per liter, it will intensify inflation and will not help boost domestic demand. The rise in domestic oil prices will boost inflation. The price of oil will rise by 10% and the CPI will increase by 0.3%-0.4%.

China's refined oil price formation mechanism adopts the principle of "22 working days + 4%". This type of program is generally considered to "catch up and not follow down." For example, when crude oil rose from 90 US dollars to 93.6 US dollars, an increase of 4%, the oil price rises in time; but when the crude oil fell from 93.6 US dollars back to 90 US dollars, the decline rate is less than 4%, the oil price remains unchanged, so the reciprocating, domestic finished products Oil prices have always risen or fell, and each rise means that it will push up domestic inflation.

According to estimates by Morgan Stanley, every 10% increase in domestic oil prices will result in a 0.3%-0.4% increase in CPI. The sustained and substantial rise in oil prices will increase the production costs and the cost of living, which may be stimulated by strong demand and increasing costs. Triggering a spiral of general price levels, further boosting inflation.

To reduce the profit margin of the transportation industry and promote the transformation of the automobile industry, only good for the monopoly of energy companies

The price increase of refined oil will impact the transportation industry. The transportation industry mainly consumes refined oil, including gasoline, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil and lubricating oil, and is one of the industries most sensitive to changes in refined oil prices. Air, road and water transport costs will increase. Even if the state gives a certain amount of subsidies, companies must also absorb some of their own, if the price increases, will make companies fall into the competitive disadvantage.

However, the rise in oil prices is good news for certain industries. For example, oil companies, oil substitution industries, new energy sources, China’s oil monopoly companies PetroChina, Sinopec, etc., are naturally beneficiaries and have a good harvest; high oil prices also stimulate oil The development of alternative industries, such as coal, natural gas, etc., will accelerate the pace of research and development in the field of new energy, and the process of energy conservation and environmental protection will continue to advance.

The impact of the rise in refined oil prices on the automotive industry is obvious. It affects the potential consumers' desire to purchase. However, in the long run, the importance attached to the price of oil by car buyers can promote the transition from automotive products to energy-saving ones. Price, performance and fuel consumption are the three major factors that potential consumers consider when buying a car. As oil prices continue to climb, car buyers will shift their emphasis on the fuel economy of cars from the previous focus on models and prices, and thus promote the research and development of energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles by auto companies.

Rising oil prices aggravate residents' burden of life, which is not conducive to expanding domestic demand market

Although the rise in refined oil products has had little effect on CPI estimation, it has actually increased the burden on residents. The cost of living with car owners will continue to increase. For drivers running long-haul carts, profit margins continue to shrink; airline profit margins are squeezed, air fares will continue to rise, and people will increase travel costs.

Rising oil prices also have a greater impact on the consumer psychology. For example, those who originally intended to buy off-road vehicles chose cars with a small displacement because the oil price was too high; those who originally intended to buy a car gave up buying cars; those who originally had cars abandoned drive and were not conducive to expanding the domestic demand market.