Tire industry cannot reproduce "blowout" in 2010

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In 2009, the tire industry "blowout", the performance indicators have reached a historical high: listed companies in the first three quarters of 2009 operating profit growth of 10.8 times year on year; ROE increased six times year on year, net assets per share growth of 15% year on year; sales gross margin It reached 18.4%.

In this regard, we believe that in the case of a sharp decline in raw material prices by 50% and a slight decrease in product prices by 5%, the rubber tire industry in 2009 was driven by the auto industry and machinery industry and quickly fell out of the fourth quarter of 2008. However, as far as 2010 is concerned, although the tire industry will maintain a high level of profitability under the support of demand, it is impossible to reproduce the sharp increase in 2009.

We expect that the profit of the tire industry in 2010 will be between 2008 and 2009, and it is expected that the earnings growth rate will decline rapidly.

We believe that absolute demand is still there and natural rubber prices will be the key factor in determining the gross margin of the industry. The cost proportion of natural rubber in radial tires is about 50%, and the cost transferability is not strong, so the tire rubber industry should maintain the current gross margin level, and the price increase of natural rubber should not exceed 20%.

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