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According to reports, a short-season shipment blowout has triggered an overall change in the recent LED sector, and the high growth expectations given by major research institutes have made the industry confident in the 2014 LED lighting market.
The industry believes that the external factor of this round of LED market is that the recent customs data reflects that the LED off-season in the fourth quarter of 2013 is not weak, Taiwan manufacturers' shipment data exceeds expectations, and the US market has completely banned production and import since January 1, 2014. Incandescent lamps, while prices have been close to incandescent lamps, the price hikes have slowed down, and large-scale shipments by industry players are endogenous. For the LED industry in 2014, a number of listed companies expressed optimism.
It is estimated that China's LED lighting products will increase by 86% in 2014.
The LED epitaxial index and LED packaging index released by LEDinside show that since November 2013, both indexes have rebounded. Among them, the epitaxial index has been attacked from the previous 1850 points to 2569.8 points. Up to 3,420 points, the attack was up to 4324.1 points, which is close to the high level of the previous round of large-scale distribution of LED manufacturers in the first quarter of 2013, indicating that the production capacity of the entire LED industry is extremely active.
Research institutions expect that the penetration rate of LED lighting products in the global market is rapidly increasing. In 2014, the output value of LED lighting products will reach 17.8 billion US dollars, and the total number of LED lighting products shipped will reach 1.32 billion, an increase of 68.
LEDinside believes that in the Chinese market, not only emerging LED manufacturers are actively deploying the LED light source market, but traditional lighting manufacturers with brand and pipeline advantages are also actively adopting a two-pronged approach to expanding the LED lighting business in the form of online and physical stores. The government is also working hard to subsidize. The policy plays an active role in promoting the development of the LED industry, while at the same time dissolving the overcapacity caused by excessive subsidies of upstream equipment and corporate closures. It is expected that China's LED lighting products will increase by 86.
LED product exports increased by 80 in the fourth quarter
According to the analysis of some customs data, it is estimated that the export growth rate of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of 2013 will be above 80%. Some analysts pointed out that general lighting is a truly billion-dollar market. It is expected that the scale of the global commercial and residential lighting market will exceed 100 billion for the first time in 2014. It is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in 2015 and the growth rate in the next two years. At around 60.
Some analysts said that the demand for LED products has risen rapidly, mainly because the price has reached a sweet spot, the American market is banned, and the subsidies in the three major markets of Europe, America and Japan. At present, this logic is being further verified from the export data and data from Taiwanese manufacturers. General lighting is one of the largest markets for LED applications. The market for backlights and dedicated lighting is tens of billions, and general lighting is a truly billion-dollar market. The global commercial and residential lighting market is expected in 2014. It will break through 100 billion for the first time. It is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in 2015, and the growth rate in the next two years will be around 60.
Fund-intensive research LED listed companies According to reports, in 2014, funds, private equity and other investors are preparing for the new year, and in the context of the LED industry recovery, Southern Fund, GF Fund [microblogging], Golden Eagle Fund companies such as [microblogging] have been investigating companies in the LED industry intensively.
Recent research reports of listed companies show that from November last year to January 3, 2014, listed companies in the LED industry such as Foshan Lighting, Hongli Optoelectronics, and Qinshang Optoelectronics were frequently investigated by institutional investors such as funds. Among them, on January 3 this year, four fund companies of Southern Fund, Nuoan Fund, Guangfa Fund and Tianhong Fund jointly investigated Foshan Lighting; on December 27 last year, Golden Eagle Fund and Southern Fund investigated and studied on Qinshang Optoelectronics; On the 26th, Huatai Bairui, Golden Eagle Fund, and Cinda Aussie investigated Hongli Optoelectronics; on November 7, last year, Harvest Fund and Bosera Fund investigated Jufei Optoelectronics.
Concept stock:
Among the A shares, LED concept stocks can be concerned: Hongli Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, Moso Power, Silan Micro, Chau Ming Technology, Guoxing Optoelectronics, etc.
Announcement of participation in the automation company. The company's announcement intends to use its own funds of 20,789,500 shares to participate in the company's equipment. After the transaction is completed, it will hold a total of 20.7895 shares of Lianshuo equipment. The original shareholders of Lianshuo Equipment promised to deduct non-tax net profit of 12 million yuan and 20 million yuan in 2014 and 2015. It is expected to contribute 2.4 million yuan and 4 million yuan of investment income to the company for 14 and 15 years.
Layout LED automation equipment to push the company's automation to improve. The company's acquisition of Lianshuo equipment is a manufacturer of LED automation equipment. Its main customers are domestic first-line LED tube lamps and bulb manufacturers. From the official website of Lianshuo equipment, including Taiwan Kangshu, Changfang Lighting, Lehman Optoelectronics, Skyworth [microblogging] and other domestic and foreign listed companies. Through strategic cooperation with Maoshuo Power Supply, Lianshuo can provide customized automatic manufacturing equipment for Maoshuo Power Supply, improve the proportion of Maoshuo power supply automation, and greatly improve the current high operating costs of Maoshuo Power Supply.
Long-term attention to industrial automation needs. With the rise of labor costs, the automation of China's electronics manufacturing industry will be inevitable. From the development of Taiwan's power supply company Delta, it has also experienced the development process from autonomous automation to becoming an automation solution provider. On the one hand, Moso Power's shareholding equipment can enjoy the return of the automation equipment market, and on the other hand, it is also an industry that has potential in the future. The research report does not rule out that the company will use Lianshuo's technology platform to jump out of the LED equipment. Market, the opportunity to enter the general industrial automation market.
Maintain Buy rating. As the company suffered from high operating costs, market competition and other factors last year, the profitability was lower than expected. The research report lowered the company's 2013-15 earnings forecast to 0.18 yuan, 0.40 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and the current price-to-earnings ratio is 53.8X, 24.1X. And 13.3X, the research report believes that considering the company's continued growth capability, the company's 6-month reasonable valuation level is 35 times in 2014, and the corresponding target price is 14 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Silan Micro adheres to the IDM model and has the manufacturing capabilities of the integrated circuit industry chain. The power chip is the focus of the company's future development, and the company's integrated circuit business will develop steadily. The company's LED business has improved with the market's boom, and the profitability has improved. With the replacement of incandescent lamps, the market space is huge in the future. The research report predicts that the company's net profit for 2013-2014 is 112 million, 158 million, EPS is 0.12 yuan, 0.16 yuan, the current share price corresponds to PE 49.97 times, 35.54 times.
Integrated circuit industry chain manufacturing capability: The company is currently one of the largest integrated circuit chip design and manufacturing companies in China. Based on the highly integrated IDM model of chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, the company continues to expand its capacity and products. The line extends development. Intelligent terminals and LED lighting are the most important driving force for the company's business development. In the future, the power 拈 business applied to variable frequency motors has great growth potential.
The IC business grew steadily: the IC industry continued to prosper and the company's business developed steadily. The integrated circuit is the company's traditional leading business. After 2010, the company transformed into high-end applications including power management and power drive, RF mixed-signal, MCU and digital audio and video chips. Power chip is the focus of development in recent years. From 2009 to 2012, China's integrated circuit market grew at an average annual rate of 13. With the growth of downstream segments such as LED lighting and smart terminals and the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the company's integrated circuit business will continue to grow steadily.
The LED industry has a broad space: As the LED chip market rises, the company's profitability will improve. With the continuous improvement of downstream lighting demand, upstream epitaxial chips and midstream packaging companies have slowly emerged from the market turmoil of the previous two years, and MOCVD capacity utilization rate is also rising. Industry polarization will become more and more obvious, and the company is expected to expand its market share.
Master MEMS core technology: The company began research and development of MEMS sensor technology and products more than three years ago, and now masters the core technology and process of MEMS. The company's MEMS sensor research and development has been supported by major national science and technology projects. China has become an important production base for personal consumer electronics products, and the share of mainland mobile terminal manufacturers in the global market continues to rise. The demand for MEMS in the Chinese market is growing rapidly, and there is a broad import substitution space in the future. The company's products are expected to grow explosively.
Risk warning: competition in the integrated circuit and LED industry has intensified, and market development of IGBT and MEMS products is lower than expected.
Promoting the sales of LED lighting products with e-commerce channels For the current LED companies, it is very difficult for LED lamps to quickly enter the distribution channels of traditional lighting fixtures. The offline and online interactive O2O business model has opened up new sales channels for LED companies.
The company walked in the LED e-commerce channel layout. In front of the competitors, the company acquired its own cash of 4.84 million shares in Hanyuan, and obtained the equity of Hanyuan 20.5, and both parties registered to establish the Zhouming Hanyuan home lighting brand. Hanyuan is a leader in the domestic LED lighting e-commerce field. It officially entered the Tmall platform in 2009, focusing on e-commerce of LED lighting products. It has won the Tmall platform LED lighting sales champion for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2012, and was awarded in 2012. Jingdong Mall [microblogging] LED lighting sales champion. The company cooperates with China Southern Power Grid to provide high-quality and reliable products and solutions for the South Energy-saving Service Network platform, and also to commercialize the platform, data analysis, sales design, brand promotion and commercial application of LED optical communication in the South. Provide strong support in exploration and other aspects.
High-density LED super TV help display business high-end development company's naked-eye stereo LED super TV officially entered the mass production stage, without the viewer wearing any auxiliary tools can see very clear and delicate stereo images, expanding the company for the company The new market segment is a new profit growth point for the company's business.
The risk suggests that the LED lighting market is underperforming.
A super-television with a small pitch is given to the recommended rating display to increase the added value of the company's products. In terms of lighting, e-commerce is ahead of domestic competitors, and the agreement with China Southern Power Grid will actively promote the sales of the company's products. The research report predicts that the company's EPS will be 0.47/0.70/0.95 yuan in 13-15 years, up by 1106, 48.4, 34.6, respectively.
Jufei Optoelectronic LED Lighting Business Interpretation: Gengsheng high-end market, firmly optimistic about the company's lighting business long-term return The company has always chosen to operate steadily, to maintain the difference between the flexible and competitive Optoelectronics to understand the stability and progress, facing the development and investment of new industries, the company Based on the evaluation of itself, it is always in a step-by-step manner, step by step penetration (such as large-size backlight), or in the form of stalking, gradually incorporating customers' different products into their own supply chain (such as brightness enhancement film). According to the research report, Jufei Optoelectronics has developed new and different industries steadily, from small-size backlights to medium-sized, large-size backlights, lighting, brightness enhancement films, flashlights, etc. From the perspective of continuous growth, try various possibilities, small-scale, step-by-step In order to maintain flexibility, we can adjust at any time according to market conditions.
The establishment of high-end lighting market is the main strategy. With the rise of LED lighting and the related enterprises actively promoted, the company still adopts a gradual strategy to focus on the strategy of quality and quality customers. It seems that it is difficult to see signs of sudden bursts in the short term. However, the research report believes that the company will gradually establish its popularity in the LED lighting industry with the high-end market of LED lighting as its starting point, and later become a supplier of brand LED lighting terminal enterprises. Moreover, the research report tracking shows that domestic LED lighting shipments are growing at a higher rate in the low-end market, and most companies will still be unable to shake off the pattern of increasing revenues. Therefore, the company is currently simple in the low-end market. The volume of shipments is of little significance, and the high-end market and profitability are the company's main considerations.
The long-term growth momentum and profitability of the company's LED lighting will exceed the market expectation in the profitable high-end lighting market. Some mainland enterprises are not able to transfer the die technology to the Taiwanese enterprises due to the encapsulation of the die technology. The research report believes that Jufei Optoelectronics believes that Jufei Optoelectronics believes that Focusing on the high-end market, the current high-end customer orders from Taiwan's competitors will continue to be eroded by the company and gradually transferred to the company. Research report believes that Jufei photoelectric lighting