Before the compilation: The gardenia blossoms, the summer has arrived, and it is summarized in the middle of the year. Since entering 2018, the automotive industry has been very lively. In the words of the old car media people, there will be no news off-season this year, and explosive news will happen every month. With the release and implementation of the new policy, new changes have taken place in the market structure, new movements of new vehicles have become more frequent, new technologies have been released intensively, and new business models have refreshed their perceptions. At the same time, however, sales of new cars have slowed significantly, stocks have been high, and car sales and service have experienced severe challenges. This issue will summarize the half-year development of the passenger car and aftermarket industries in this issue and the next issue. (See 39-44 version for details)

The pattern of traditional fuel vehicles has changed, the demand in the consumer market has escalated, and the development of new energy vehicles has accelerated. The changes that the Chinese automobile industry is experiencing are not only driven by internal genetics, but also inseparable from the promotion of national industrial policies.

In 2018, a number of industrial new policies ushered in the first year of implementation: new energy vehicle subsidies fell; the passenger car tax rate below 1.6L displacement was restored to 10%; the "double points" policy was officially implemented... whether for car buyers Or a car manufacturer, destined to be thrilled in 2018. In the six months since the implementation of the New Deal, how have they affected the industrial development, and what changes have occurred in the domestic auto market? In this regard, the "China Auto News" reporter surveyed the market, interviewed experts, and explored the implementation effect of the New Deal.

â–  Subsidies in the transition period of new energy vehicles increased sharply during the transition period

On July 11, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association") announced the latest statistics. From January to June, the production and sales of passenger cars were 11.854 million and 11.775 million, respectively. The production and sales increased respectively compared with the same period of last year. 3.2% and 4.6%. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles are growing very rapidly. From January to June, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles were 413,000 and 412,000 respectively, an increase of 94.9% and 111.5% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales volume of pure electric vehicles increased by 79% and 96% compared with the same period of last year; the production and sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 170.2% and 181.6% respectively. According to industry analysts, the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales this year has benefited from the improvement of product strength and the inability to drive the new energy vehicle subsidy.

On February 13, the "Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" was promulgated. The New Deal has substantially increased the battery energy density standard. Vehicles with a driving range below 150km are no longer included in the subsidy range. This will promote the growth of passenger cars with high driving mileage and the two-way increase in the quantity and quality of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the New Deal also set a transition period from February 12 to June 11 this year. The new energy passenger cars and buses on the license will be implemented at 0.7 times the 2017 subsidy standard, and the new energy trucks and special vehicles will be 0.4 times. Execution, fuel cell vehicle subsidy standards remain unchanged, to avoid the emergence of new energy vehicle sales due to policy adjustments and significant "diving."

"In the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. From the performance of new energy vehicles in June, the sales of A00 pure electric passenger vehicles have dropped by more than 60% from May, and the A0 grade is pure. The proportion of electric SUV models increased significantly, and the sales volume of independent new plug-in hybrid models increased by 120% year-on-year. 2018 is the transition period of new energy vehicle development, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles maintain a strong growth trend. It will promote the technological upgrading of the power battery industry and the rapid increase of energy density, and promote the high-quality growth of high-end new energy vehicles. It will form a new growth of new energy vehicles with medium and high-end new energy passenger vehicles and high-end electric logistics vehicles as the core growth drivers. The new situation." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Information Association. In his view, in the first half of this year, especially in the transition period after the introduction of the new energy subsidy new policy in February to the implementation of the New Deal in June, some auto companies adopted the "pre-clearance clearance" approach to cope with subsidies, which led to In the first half of the year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has more than doubled.

â– Small-displacement purchase tax concession cancels auto companies to pay for their own pockets

After two years and three months of implementation, on January 1, 2018, the preferential tax policy for passenger car purchases of 1.6 liters or less was finally settled. The tax rate went back to 10% after 5% to 7.5%. From the market feedback data, although the company introduced remedial measures, with the upgrade of consumption, the small-displacement passenger car market still bears certain terminal sales pressure.

According to data released by the China Automobile Association, the market share of small-displacement passenger cars has continued to decline since the beginning of this year. After falling by 0.7 percentage points in April, it fell by 2.32 percentage points in May, and the decline rate reached a new high in a year. From January to June, sales of passenger cars with displacements of 1L and below fell by 57.3% year-on-year, and sales of passenger cars with displacements of 1L to 1.6L increased by 3.3% year-on-year.

From January to May, the production and sales volume of self-owned brands 1L to 1.6L displacement passenger cars were 6.595 million and 6.634 million, respectively. The output decreased by 0.2% compared with the same period of last year, and the sales volume increased slightly by 3.4%. From the data of the market segments, the feedback on the policies of different models showed significant differences, and the small-displacement sedan and MPV markets experienced a sharp decline. From January to May, the car market, the production and sales volume of 1L ~ 1.6L displacement models was 3.289 million and 3,393,800, down 7.7% and 2.1% year-on-year; compared with cars, 1L ~ 1.6L displacement MPV market The volatility was even larger. Its production and sales volume was 547,100 units and 567,800 units, down 21.8% and 16.5% year-on-year. Among the three major market segments, only SUVs remained strong, and the production and sales volume of 1L to 1.6L displacement models increased year-on-year. Larger, especially the output growth of 70%, is also due to the performance of the SUV market, making the sales of small-displacement passenger cars remain stable.

In addition, car companies, especially listed car companies, are using various preferential policies to maintain steady growth in sales. "Compared with the profits, listed car companies are more concerned about sales, because they need to use high sales to ensure that the financial statements are more 'pretty'. Therefore, it is very likely that some car companies will pay for themselves and make up the difference caused by the increase in purchase tax. "The insider of a large car company said. Indeed, since February this year, major manufacturers have introduced preferential policies to alleviate the impact of preferential policies on the market. For example, Geely Dorsett, which ranks in the top three in terms of sales volume, offers a discount of 6,000 yuan, and both Geely Vision and Chery Ariza 5 are priced at 4,000 yuan. Similar to the premium strategy, BYD, BAIC and the Great Wall Harvard brand have all launched more than 4,000 yuan of car discounts to subsidize end users. A 4S shop salesperson in Tongzhou District of Beijing told reporters that since the beginning of the year, he has been doing various promotional activities, and the preferential strength is greater than in previous years.

â–  Double integral policy clearing effect is obvious

In the first half of this year, on the one hand, new energy auto companies began to adjust their sales strategies; on the other hand, traditional fuel car companies are also accelerating the layout of new energy vehicles. On July 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Markets jointly issued the “Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises and the Credit Calculation of New Energy Vehicles in 2017”, and the new energy of 130 car enterprises in 2017 The car score is higher than the fuel consumption score, but it should not be overlooked that there are still some car companies with negative points after the two points are offset. Among them, traditional fuel car companies, especially joint venture car companies, have performed more clearly.

Since the first half of this year, some multinational companies have announced their withdrawal or may withdraw from the Chinese market in the future. Such as Fiat and Suzuki, the analysis of the industry, the two brands chose to withdraw from the Chinese market to a certain extent is the result of the "double points" policy. Due to the lack of new energy vehicles, the pressure on points is large, and exiting the Chinese market is actually a self-protection behavior. In addition to the joint venture brand, independent auto companies are also facing certain pressure. Wen Hong, general manager of Junma Auto Sales Co., said: "From the perspective of enterprises, we can only develop in a way that adapts to the policy, and in the general direction encouraged by the state, do Although it was only a year since Junma was founded, our product line has been designed with multiple power layouts in mind. Currently, three fuel models have been introduced, but there will be several pure electric motors in the next two years. Models and hybrid models are on the market. Double-point liquidation is on the way, we must consider it in advance. If it is not adjusted, the future will not only be the reduction of subsidies, but also the punishment of the policy." In addition, Great Wall Motors with greater pressure on points this year In the semi-annual Beijing Auto Show, the new energy brand Euler was launched, and at the same time, it established strategic partnerships with a number of companies to accelerate the deployment of new energy vehicles.