Recently, the international oil price fluctuated and fell. On July 6, it hit the biggest one-day drop in international oil prices since April this year. But for Chinese consumers, the decline in refined oil prices is not obvious. In this regard, relevant experts pointed out that the international oil price downturn has released a certain dividend to Chinese consumers, but due to increased environmental protection requirements, oil product upgrades have accelerated, resulting in higher oil price costs. At 24:00 on July 7, the refined oil price adjustment window was opened again, and the domestic oil price ushered in the fifth reduction this year.
Multiple negatives led to a decline This year, the international oil price first fell to a low point, then rebounded, and recently fluctuated again. According to statistics, the international oil price in the first quarter fell to a new low in the past six years. In the second quarter, international oil prices bottomed out to around $60 a barrel, but still in a period of low oil prices.
By June 9, international oil prices are still at a low level. On July 6, international crude oil prices plunged 7.7%, the biggest one-day drop since April. On July 7, international crude oil prices stabilized. At 15:38 on July 7th, Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures price rose 1.27% to 57.26 US dollars / barrel; US crude oil futures price rose 0.97% to 53.03 US dollars / barrel.
Experts analyzed that the fall in oil prices was caused by multiple factors. From an international perspective, if the Greek debt crisis intensifies and the Iranian nuclear issue comprehensive agreement is reached, it will reopen Iranian oil exports. These conditions have aggravated market sentiment and oil prices have fallen sharply.
The increase in OPEC crude oil production is also one of the important reasons. According to statistics, OPEC production in May this year reached its highest level since October 2012. According to the Platts survey, the OPEC oil output in June increased by 170,000 barrels per day, reaching a daily level of 31.28 million barrels, which is nearly 1.3 million barrels per day higher than the current output ceiling. It may be as of August 2012. Maximum single month output.
The market is also worried that the consumption power of China, a major oil consumer, will weaken. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that China's economic growth has shown signs of slowing, raising fears that oil prices are lower. China is the second largest importer of crude oil in the world, and China's crude oil imports in May fell by 10% year-on-year. In addition, the A-share market opened higher on Monday and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell sharply, indicating that China's crude oil demand may not be strong in the future.
Domestic consumers have not felt that international oil prices have fallen. China, as a big consumer country, certainly has certain advantages, but there are also doubts that consumers do not feel very substantial benefits.
In fact, Chinese consumers still receive some dividends. "The price of oil has dropped from more than 8 yuan to more than 6 yuan now, and it has already had certain benefits." Niu Li, director of the Macro Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, pointed out in an interview with this reporter. It is understood that in the first half of 2015, China's oil prices experienced a total of 12 rounds of price adjustment cycle, of which 4 were downgraded, 5 times raised, and 3 times due to the magnitude of less than 50 yuan / ton and temporarily not adjusted.
According to the principle of “10 working days and one adjustment” of the new pricing mechanism of refined oil products, the window of refined oil price adjustment at 24 o'clock on July 7 was reopened, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices ushered in the fifth reduction in the year.
However, low oil prices have also caused certain losses in coal chemical industries such as coal-to-liquid and coal-to-gas, which depend on high oil prices. New energy industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy have been hit.
Oil product upgrades lead to higher costs Domestic oil prices have not fallen sharply with the international market. An important reason is that oil upgrades have led to rising costs. Niu Li said that the current environmental protection standards have improved, and the quality requirements for oil products have been continuously upgraded, so the cost of refining is increasing.
On April 28 this year, the State Council executive meeting and the seven national ministries and commissions jointly issued a plan to speed up the production and supply of clean oil products. First, the scope of expansion will be implemented. From January 1st, 2016, the quality standards for gasoline and diesel in the country will be implemented in 11 provinces and cities in the east. Second, the implementation of the national V-standard vehicle gasoline and diesel will be implemented in advance. January 1, 2018, advance to January 1, 2017; third, for ordinary diesel, from July 1, 2017, the national standard for the implementation of sulfur content of not more than 50ppm (equivalent to the national IV standard), 2018 From January 1st, the quality standard of sulfur content not exceeding 10ppm (equivalent to the national V standard) will be implemented nationwide.
It is reported that Sinopec invested 261.5 billion yuan in the refining sector from 2000 to 2014, of which 32.161 billion yuan was reached in 2012. At present, Sinopec has 70% gasoline capacity and 40% vehicle diesel capacity up to the national V standard.
Experts believe that low oil prices are expected to continue in the second half of the year, which will provide space for China's oil product upgrade. According to reports, Sinopec's eastern refinery will be upgraded by October 1 this year, and refineries in other regions will complete the upgrade by October 1, 2016. By the end of 2016, PetroChina's gasoline and diesel will all meet the national V standard requirements.

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