Pricing mechanism reform is expected to come out

According to analysts, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's natural gas consumption will grow rapidly. Increasing imports will become an important measure to make up for gaps.

Recently, relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission revealed to the media that the official draft of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas has taken shape and is awaiting approval from the State Council's executive meeting. It is expected that it will be announced soon.

This is also the first special plan for natural gas. It is worth noting that while the 12th Five-Year Plan for natural gas is being released, the reform plan for the pricing mechanism of natural gas is also expected to be launched later.

Natural gas consumption doubles during the twelfth five-year period

According to statistics, by 2015, China’s natural gas supply structure will be 170 billion cubic meters of domestic gas and net imports of 90 billion cubic meters, and natural gas consumption will reach 260 billion cubic meters, accounting for the proportion of primary energy consumption from the current 4% rose to about 8%. Domestic natural gas production is expected to reach 185 billion cubic meters, and the supply and demand gap will reach 75 billion cubic meters. This will depend on imported natural gas to meet domestic demand.

In recent years, the consumption of natural gas in China has been increasing. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, apparent consumption in the first quarter was 39 billion cubic meters, which was a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, while domestic natural gas production only increased by 7.3% year-on-year to 28.8 billion cubic meters. In this case, imported natural gas from Central Asian natural gas pipelines and LNG (liquefied natural gas) increased by 65.5% in the first quarter.

Li Lingxuan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, China's natural gas supply is more than 70% self-produced. However, during the 12th five-year period, under the general environment of energy-saving emission reduction and adjustment of economic structure, China's natural gas consumption will It will grow rapidly and increasing imports will become an important measure to make up for gaps. In July 2011, the proportion of China's imported natural gas/production increased to 40%. In the second half of 2011, this ratio has remained above 30%.

At the same time, he pointed out that the influx of imported resources into China has also made non-market natural gas products face the challenges of the market economy. According to Zhuochuang Information, the domestic natural gas price is equivalent to 30% of the price of the same-calorie oil product, while the international natural gas price is about 60% of the price of the same-calorie oil product.

As domestic natural gas prices are too low and import prices are higher than domestic prices, China Petroleum & Natural Gas and Pipeline segment realized a profit of 15.53 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%, of which sales of imported natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) had a cumulative loss of 21.4 billion yuan.

Li Lingxuan pointed out that with the continuous increase in natural gas consumption during the 12th Five-Year Plan period and the failure to resolve the problem of import upside-down, I am afraid that it cannot meet the growing natural gas market. As a result, it is imperative to promote the market-oriented reform of natural gas prices.

Statistics show that during the 11th five-year period, natural gas production in China has increased by an average of 13.74%, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 13%-15% in the next five years; however, this is still a far cry from the average annual growth of 25% in domestic consumption.

Some analysts pointed out that to achieve this goal, it is necessary to cooperate with sufficient natural gas supply and competitive market pricing. Increasing the supply of natural gas through large-scale import and development of unconventional natural gas is the only way to promote the development of the natural gas market in the next few years. [next]

Natural gas pricing mechanism gradually reformed

All along, domestic natural gas does not have a unified pricing mechanism. The main method is to adopt the “cost plus” pricing method: natural gas prices are divided into four links: ex-factory price, pipeline transmission fee, city gate station price, and end-user price. Pricing is administrative. The market is supplemented by the main government and the market, which is determined by the government department based on the production and supply costs plus a reasonable profit.

Zhou Cuiping, an energy analyst at Business Club, said in an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter that this pricing mechanism is a stable pricing method. It cannot effectively reflect changes in market demand and cannot reflect the impact of alternative energy alternatives on natural gas prices. Therefore, it is not conducive to embodying different price competitiveness of different gas sources. Usually, problems such as “universal price”, “multi-price of one place”, and “inverted import” are often caused.

At the same time, the voice of market-oriented natural gas reform has become increasingly strong. On December 26, 2011, Guangdong and Guangxi began to carry out pilot reforms of natural gas price formation mechanisms.

The industry agrees that this is a signal for the reform of the natural gas pricing mechanism. According to the pilot scheme, the pricing of natural gas in Guangdong and Guangxi will be comprehensively formulated based on Shanghai's fuel oil and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) prices, plus pipeline transportation and other administrative expenses. After the price change, the sales price of Guangdong Natural Gas Gate Station was 2.74 yuan/cubic meter, and that of Guangxi's gate station was 2.57 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of natural gas stations in other parts of the country remain at the midpoint of 1.8 yuan/cubic meter to 2.3 yuan/cubic meter.

What is the effect of the reform? Zhong Xuezhi, a researcher in the energy industry at China Investment Advisors, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the natural gas reforms in Guangdong and Guangxi have been less than half a year, and the effect is not yet significant.

However, on the whole, the Guangdong-Guangzhou natural gas reform basically guaranteed price stability in the process of pricing from the cost-plus government pricing to the market's net return value method, and did not have a major impact on the supply of natural gas. At the same time, the interests of natural gas upstream and downstream entities in the reform process are more evenly distributed, and the interests of all parties are respected.

The industry is very optimistic about natural gas reform. On March 29, CNPC president Zhou Jiping stated at the 2011 performance conference held by CNPC in Hong Kong that the National Development and Reform Commission will increase the adjustment of natural gas price reform mechanism this year, and will further promote it on the basis of pilot projects in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces. To the whole country. PetroChina is actively cooperating with the National Development and Reform Commission to study and promote the next promotion of this work.

A number of industry insiders also revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that natural gas pricing mechanism reform is expected to be launched at the same time as the 12th Five-Year Plan for Natural Gas. However, the marketization of natural gas prices will lead to a rise in the price of natural gas. Taking into account the market's affordability, it needs a gradual introduction process.

In addition, Zhong Xuezhi, a research fellow of China Investment Consulting, also pointed out that natural gas in Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces is mainly dependent on imports and is more sensitive to changes in international prices. The source of gas in many provinces mainly comes from West-East Gas Transmission. There is a big difference in the price and transportation distance between these two provinces. These differences are the aspects that must be taken care of in the reform of natural gas and cannot be copied.

"Shale gas revolution" promotes development of natural gas heavy truck

The “Shale Gas Revolution” has changed the energy structure of the United States: According to statistics, although natural gas consumption in the United States has continued to rise in the past few years, due to the development of shale gas, the gap between supply and demand has gradually decreased, and the net import of natural gas has also declined. It is expected that the supply and demand balance will be basically reached by 2035. The supply of natural gas in the United States is sufficient to give natural gas a price advantage over crude oil.

China's shale gas industry has begun to heat up: Research data shows that China's shale gas reserves are in the leading position in the world. The expanding natural gas supply gap, domestic energy-saving emission reduction requirements and China's deep shale gas resource reserves have triggered the government and social capital to pay great attention to shale gas exploration and development.

The economic benefits of natural gas heavy trucks are outstanding: According to the current natural gas and diesel price estimates, the use of natural gas heavy truck transportation can save more than 100,000 yuan in fuel oil within one year, and can fully recover the difference in the purchase price. If the difference between the price of diesel and natural gas increases in the future, the time for recovering the additional investment for purchasing natural gas heavy trucks will be shorter.

The construction of gas filling stations affects the development process of natural gas heavy trucks: At present, users' concerns about natural gas heavy trucks come from power differences, safety, and economy, but these can easily be eliminated. Only the lack of sufficient gas stations on the operation line has become an obstacle that is difficult to solve in the short term. The increase in the construction of gas stations will increase the space for natural gas heavy trucks.

The development of natural gas heavy trucks will drive the peripheral equipment manufacturing industry: In addition to natural gas heavy truck OEMs and natural gas engine manufacturers, manufacturers of natural gas storage equipment and gas station equipment will also benefit from the development of natural gas heavy trucks.

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