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In 2007, the impact of the pharmaceutical industry policy will continue: In 2007, the four major factors affecting the pharmaceutical industry are: slower drug regulatory approvals, reform of the medical system, price cuts for medicines, and commercial bribery for medical treatment. The slowdown in the approval of new drugs will affect the speed of new product launches by pharmaceutical manufacturers and their ability to continue to grow. The possible direction of health reform next year will be to increase government investment and strengthen community health care. Pharmaceutical production companies that may benefit include: 1. Unique products, exclusive production in China or only a few productions, and competition is not fierce. 2, the product is cheap, the market share is larger, to treat common diseases and frequently-occurring diseases. The pharmaceutical distribution companies with a wide network and large scale will also benefit, and the “Matthew Effect†of pharmaceutical business will become more apparent. In addition, medical device and diagnostic reagent companies may also benefit. Anti-commercial bribery has achieved periodic results. The future will be a normal state. Unregulated companies will accelerate their outflows, and the advantages of standardized and high-tech products will be more obvious. In the future, the company will focus on the marketing of the sun, and the promotion of new drugs may “thawâ€. Drug price cuts have become the norm. Unlike in the past, the prices of affordable drugs have been raised, and national policies have encouraged the production and use of these drugs. We predict that the operating characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry in 2007 is to maintain the trend and adjust the structure. In 2007, the pharmaceutical industry will continue its growth trend in 2006. The growth rate of income will continue to decline. It is estimated that it will be around 15% for the whole year. The growth rate of profits will continue to rise, and the profit rate before tax will increase. It is estimated at 1 point. about. Under such a moderate growth trend, the advantages of leading enterprises will become more prominent, and pharmaceuticals with technological content and high quality and low price will grow faster. Both corporate and product growth in the industry will show structural adjustments.
In 2007, the investment strategy of the pharmaceutical industry was both internal and external, and growth stocks were locked in. We are concerned about companies with good growth. Growth comes from two aspects, including endogenous growth and the expectation of external asset injection. The endogenous growth of the company's ability to resist industry policy risks is strong. The growth drivers come from the improvement of management level, the listing of new products, and the rapid growth brought about by the changes in the sub-industry. The companies that are worthy of attention include Kehua Bio and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical. , Kangmei Pharmaceutical, Qianjin Pharmaceutical, Shuanghe Pharmaceutical, etc. Through mergers and acquisitions, companies that are expected to grow in an episodic manner include Tiantan Bio, Sinopharm, Hengrui Medicine, Huadong Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Real Syndication, and Modern Pharmaceuticals. For this type of company, we focus on whether asset injection can increase the number of listed companies. Stock earnings.
Key leading investment value analysis
Kehua Bio: The company's hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and AIDS immunodiagnostic reagents rank the first, second, and second place in the domestic market, and are market leaders. Biochemical diagnostic reagents ranked No. 2 and are market challengers. Nucleic acid diagnostic reagents are just starting and are rapidly growing. They are market followers.
The company’s leading position in the industry and its comprehensive competitive advantages in the market, talent, management, technology and other aspects will maintain its stable and rapid growth. The company will also achieve simultaneous development in the aspects of immunity, biochemistry, nucleic acid, automated instruments, experimental software, and synergies.
We continue to be optimistic about the future development of the company for the following reasons:
1. With the continuous development and production of R&D products, the company will gradually develop from a simple diagnostic reagent company into a company that encompasses diagnostic reagents and involves in the development of diagnostic instruments and laboratory software. Among them, the varieties of immune, biochemical, nucleic acid, and rapid diagnostic reagents are also increasing. We believe that the company currently has the most complete product range in the domestic diagnostic reagent industry. Not only will it have more growth points in the future, but the company's ability to resist risks will also increase significantly.
2. We have always stressed that the company is an endogenous growth company driven by R&D. This R&D capability of the company is not only reflected in the launch of new products, but also reflected in its effective reduction of production costs through R&D. If the company's raw material costs account for approximately 27-29% of its production costs, the vast majority of Kehua's raw materials are self-contained, and the cost of raw materials is significantly lower than other companies.
3. The expansion of sales territory. After the Clinton Foundation won the bid for the AIDS diagnostic reagent, its market development work is in full swing and real sales may form next year. The company's self-produced products have obtained European CE certification, and its export has increased significantly.
4. Changes in future industry policies will bring about positive results: On June 13 of this year, the SFDA promulgated the solicitation of opinions for the "Administrative Measures for the Registration of In vitro Diagnostic Reagents" and the "Implementing Rules." Among them, it is clear that in vitro diagnostic reagents will all be administered to medical devices. According to preliminary estimates, the actual implementation of this policy will not be until 2007. The positive significance of the implementation of this policy lies in the following: First, it eliminated the problem of inconsistency in the approval and circulation of immunodiagnostic reagents in the past (for details, see CITIC Securities, "Front Leader and Winner after Full Competition in the Domestic Diagnostic Reagent Industry, December 2005"). Secondly, it is conducive to the company's new product approval. At present, the approval of SFDA's new drug approval has been slowed down, which is not conducive to the sustained and stable development of the company. However, after the medical device, it is estimated that the approval process will be accelerated.
Kangyuan Pharmaceutical: The driving force behind the growth of Kangyuan Pharmaceutical's performance comes from its good product structure and new product R&D capabilities. The company’s flagship product, Guizhi Fuling Pills, has a relatively stable sales, with 2005 sales of 230 million yuan. The second-line products include anti-bone hyperplasia capsules, Tianshu capsules, lumbar capsules, and Jinzhen oral liquids, with sales ranging from 30 to 60 million yuan. The newly-listed products include Liuwei Dihuang Soft Capsule, Sanjie Zhitong Capsule, Red Tonic Injection and Tongan Injection.
From the first three quarters, the fastest-growing is Liuweidihuang soft capsules and Sanjie analgesic capsules, which increased by 100% and 120% over the same period of last year. The main product Guizhiyu capsules remained stable, but the market gave higher expectations of heat. Ning and Tong'an injections were affected by the hospital's rectification of drug marketing order, and there was no significant increase in product volume.
The advantage of the company lies in its rich new product echelon, and the risk is that the marketing capability is not sufficient to adapt to the product's status across multiple sales terminals and multiple departments, and accounts receivable are correspondingly higher. We believe that Kangyuan Pharmaceutical has rich product reserves and strong ability to develop new products. Even if the growth of traditional Chinese medicine injections is lower than expected, the rapid growth of existing products is enough to ensure the rapid growth of the company.
Kangmei Pharmaceutical: The growth of Kangmei Pharmaceutical's performance comes from the release of the production capacity of Chinese Herbal Pieces in 2007 and 2008. The company's existing production capacity is about 3,000 tons, and the production capacity will double in 2007. In 2008, there will be another 5,000 tons of production capacity. The rapid expansion of the scale promotes the rapid growth of business performance.
Kangmei Pharmaceutical is the biggest beneficiary of the change in the format of Chinese Herbal Medicines. At present, the industrial structure of the traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces is scattered, the production standards are not uniform, and the product quality is uneven. The SFDA began to rectify the decoction industry in 2002 and requested that no GMP certification makers exit the market by the end of 2007. At the same time, it will explicitly implement approval document number management for decoction pieces; at the same time, there are many varieties of TCM decoction pieces, and ordinary Chinese medicine hospitals need to maintain more than 400 kinds of products. Decoction pieces, large-scale hospitals also expect standardized, large-scale decoction pieces manufacturers to provide a full range of products with reliable quality to reduce the difficulty and cost of drug procurement. Compared with traditional Qiandian back-burning production, the Kangmei model has scale advantages, quality advantages, variety advantages and service advantages, and will become a beneficiary of the changes in the format of the decoction pieces.
We believe that the entry barrier of the Kangmei model is not low. First of all, Kangmei Pharmaceutical has the advantage of first-mover advantage, timely expansion of production capacity, has been in the leading position in the industry; Second, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces are mainly direct sales, the company directly controls the downstream sales network, and also has certain bargaining power for the purchase of the upstream medicinal materials. The monopoly of the entire industry chain; In addition, the company actively participates in the development of standards for processing concocted pieces, cultivating professional talents, and optimizing production management to increase industry barriers.
It is expected that the earnings per share of Kangmei Pharmaceutical from 2006 to 2008 will be 0.44 yuan, 0.60 yuan and 0.82 yuan respectively, and the target price in six months will be 15 yuan, which is 25 times of the 2007 earnings per share.
Qianjin Pharmaceutical: The profitability of Qianjin Pharmaceutical mainly comes from the parent company's Qianjin series. Qianjin Films has been sold on the hospital market since 1993 and has accumulated a wealth of hospital sales network resources for many years. Against the backdrop of anti-commercial bribery in hospitals, the use of Qianjin Tablets and Qianjin Capsules has a long history of growth, and there is more room for growth in the use of drugs that have a definite curative effect.
In 2006 and 2007, the company's growth mainly comes from product replacement, marketing, refinement and deepening. Since we can share sales channels and network resources with the original Qianjin Tablets, we expect the sales of Qianjin Capsule will grow rapidly in 2006. Because of the large base, the growth of Qianjin films is relatively stable. The growth of the existing market will slow down. The rapid growth of Qianjin films will depend on the development of the rural market.
Shuanghe Pharmaceutical: Shuanghe Pharmaceutical has caused significant fluctuations in its performance due to blind expansion in history and investment failure. In 2005, with the gradual replacement of the company's and its parent company’s major leaders, the company’s development strategy for the next five years has also become increasingly clear and complete.
In terms of business philosophy, the company has undergone a fundamental change: from the simple pursuit of scale expansion in the past to the pursuit of increased profits as the core, to carry out "second venture." Specific measures include: the development of specialized operations, returning to core business, focusing on areas where it has competitive advantages, and divesting non-core businesses and assets (such as pharmaceutical and natural medicine businesses). In the future, it will focus on the development of cardiovascular, diabetes, and infusions. It will strive to become the “first brand†of these three areas.
At present, from the perspective of the company's business and profitability, profitability mainly comes from the formulation part (including cardiovascular drugs and endocrine drugs, etc.). The large infusion part has been gradually improved with the divestment of loss-making subsidiaries and the upgrading of product structure, and the profitability has been improved. In the future, the company will have significant profit contribution. The scale of the commercial sector will maintain the status quo, provide good cash flow and stimulate the sales of industrial products.
The preparation of some cardiovascular drugs is mainly based on the old product BP 0. This product is inexpensive, suitable for China's national conditions, and the demand is continuously stable. It is the main source of company income and profit. The endocrine drugs are mainly sugar-based. The sales and profitability of the product are very stable. In addition to the growth of the above two businesses, the company’s future growth also includes the growth in the structural transformation of large infusion products, loss of commercial losses, and new product launches.
From 2005 to 2007, the performance of the company, in addition to its own growth in products, also included a gradual decrease in the provision for bad debts and a recovery of performance. After 2007, it will mainly manifest itself as the endogenous growth of the company's products.
Investment Strategy of the Pharmaceutical Industry in 2007: Locking 10 Faucets
In the first three quarters of 2006, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry decreased, and the sub-industry experienced uneven growth: In the first three quarters of 2006, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 337.4 billion yuan and the total profit was 25.7 billion yuan, an increase of 18% and 7% year-on-year respectively. This year, the country’s implementation of policies on the pharmaceutical industry, including anti-commercial bribery, drug price cuts, and the slowdown of approvals for new drugs, led to a decline in sales growth from the initial months of the year, and the total profit growth was significantly lower than in 2004 and 2005 levels. After the decline in operating expenses and other factors, the pre-tax profit growth rebounded, and the pre-tax profit rate also rebounded to 7.63%. The sub-sectors are not happy, the Chinese medicine decoction pieces and bio-pharmaceutical "joy," chemical preparations and proprietary Chinese medicine "bitter."