If the price of the battery is even higher than the price of oil or the price of the internal combustion engine, pure electric vehicles will lose their market competitiveness.

Ten years ago, I wrote an article on hydrogen fuel cells and talked about its many issues, such as transportation and safety. Fortunately, now the country does not encourage the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but the new controversy has changed to the development of mixed Power car or pure electric car up.

In my opinion, the conclusion is very clear that the development direction of new energy vehicles is pure electric vehicles.

Internal combustion engine technology has long been a weakness in China, and companies in foreign countries regard basic research as a different life. Domestic companies have not even done detailed basic research. Until now, China still cannot independently design internal combustion engine locomotives. Since China cannot compete with foreign countries in terms of internal combustion engine technology, and even compares them, China is also very likely to fail to produce any constructive results in the development of hybrid vehicles.

Faced with this existing reality, we might as well go to the development of pure electric vehicle technology. In this area, the technologies of various countries are almost on the same starting line. If China can put its main power into the electric vehicle from now on, it can go forward together with other countries. Even if our foundation will be slightly inferior, we can still catch up. In addition, in terms of the degree of mechanization, because the existing technologies are still not mature, they are still in the stage of testing the market. Countries will not easily implement large-scale mechanization, which in turn highlights the advantage of cheap labor in China and helps reduce costs. Improve competitiveness.

In addition, another practical issue that restricts the development of hybrid vehicles is oil prices. The current high price of oil directly leads to the high cost of hybrid vehicles. Without the price advantage, the problem of pollution cannot be solved completely. It can be said that HEVs have basically lost their market competitiveness and are unable to form industrialization.

The development of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles is the way out, and in order to make a pure electric car, to design a battery as a power center. At present, China's battery technology is not mature enough, the service life is not long to become the biggest problem in the development of pure electric vehicles. A car can be used for 10 to 15 years, up to no more than 30 years. According to the calculation of charging 300 times a year, it is necessary to charge 3,000 times in 10 years, which means that a pure electric vehicle will probably be charged 10,000 times before being scrapped. The life of lithium manganate is only about 1500 times. The life of lithium iron phosphate, which is currently used in China, is only 3,000 times. With a short life, price issues will be highlighted. If the price of the battery is higher than the price of oil or the price of the internal combustion engine, the electric vehicle will lose its market competitiveness.

Fortunately, there is a gratifying situation. A battery with lithium manganese oxide as the positive electrode and lithium titanate as the negative electrode has attracted much attention and has been favored by people. The number of times this battery is charged is 30,000. However, this technology has not yet been completely marketized. At present, it is only at the experimental stage. Therefore, I think that as a strategic emerging industry in China, new energy vehicles are the high point of this lithium-ion battery that can be charged and discharged 30,000 times.

The other is a lithium-air battery. Its energy density is 20 times that of a lithium-ion battery, which is higher than the energy density of gasoline. The world is working on this technology, but it is still costly, so I think the current lithium-air car is not worth promoting.

There are different technologies in the field of electric vehicles that can form a competitive relationship, which is beneficial to the optimization of the market. As an electric vehicle, it can be done in two or three years. It may take 10 or 15 years. Therefore, we need to have a long-term development strategy. On this issue, I think the main body of promotion should be the state, not the company and their representatives.