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Recently, many heavy truck operators have received notice from the management department: From July 1 this year, diesel vehicles will formally implement the National IV standard. This means that after the implementation of the new emissions, the existing national III emission standard diesel vehicles on the market will be prohibited from sales and registration.
According to the reporter, on the eve of the upgrade of the emission standards, the dealers entered the "last crazy phase" of shipments. A person in charge of a heavy truck dealership in Shanghai introduced that in the past two months, the distributor group has been selling a large quantity of goods to prepare enough inventory to prepare for subsequent sales. He explained to the reporter that "the currently purchased models will be licensed by special means and then slowly digested after July 1."
Due to the large number of dealers in the country, the model III led to the current order of the National IV model. A person from Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. reluctantly stated that “from the perspective of visiting dealers, the main force of the current sales is the National III model. It is estimated that after the implementation of the National IV in July, the market in the next two months will be very deserted, so we We are also considering reducing production and rest."
China IV product demand or release next year
Recently, the Director of the Vehicle Pollution Control Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Mr. Tang Dagang, stated that on July 1 this year, the fourth-phase emission standard for heavy-duty vehicles will be resolutely implemented, "without delay."
However, whether it is a business or a dealer, the current market sales prospects for the China IV model are generally negative.
An insider of China National Heavy Duty Truck admitted to reporters: “The standard does not come down one day, and the market’s concerns have been there. Actually, the product of our national IV standard has long been ready, but the policy was not yet clear, and our company’s There are few models announced, so there are not many models that can be sold."
It is understood that the current cost of a new vehicle model announcement on the Ministry of Industry is about 15,000 to 30,000 yuan, in addition, the product for the 3C certification needs more than 100,000 yuan, and finally in the environmental protection department to apply for an announcement. This means that for a company with dozens of products, the time and money spent cannot be ignored. Even more worrying is that if the National III model can still be sold in the market, the National IV product will not be competitive at all in terms of selling price. In addition, the above-mentioned sources pointed out that the implementation time of the National IV standard is just the off-season during the year. “By referring to past experience in upgrading emission standards, most consumers will purchase in advance two months before implementation, which is also the sales volume in the past two months. The reason for the sharp rise."
According to the forecast of heavy truck dealers mentioned above, the demand for China IV products will gradually be released after the second half of next year, and before this, the dealers will still be the main selling country III models. "After all, the prices of State III and State IV differ by two or three thousand yuan. For heavy truck consumers, prices are always the most sensitive."
“We expect dealers to mainly digest inventory in the second half of the year, so it is difficult to rely on the China IV model to drive sales growth.†The Dongfeng commercial vehicle said, “This also requires the relevant departments to coordinate the supporting measures as soon as possible.â€
Insufficient holding capacity inhibits downstream supporting production
For auto companies, launching the China IV model is not a problem. China National Heavy Duty Truck said to reporters, "The implementation of the National IV emission standards, the company's product technology has no problem, oil can not be synchronized to upgrade is the promotion of the biggest problem."
Yang Zaiyu, deputy secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said that in the current emission reduction technologies, the diesel urea SCR (emissions post-treatment) system has minor modifications to the automobile, has a higher tolerance to oil quality, and is also fuel-efficient. There are also improvements in this area. Right now is the "most applicable technology."
Liu Peng (a pseudonym), an automotive urea production company who has supplied long-term commercial vehicles to Dongfeng, introduced that the average number of kilometers of urea used for 10 liters is 5,000 kilometers, and the average price per liter is 5 yuan.
“Although the cost of use has increased during the initial period of use, the use of high-pressure common rail and SCR technology in the state-of-the-art IV engine can reduce fuel consumption by at least 5% on the basis of State III. In fact, this initial cost can be passed within 1 to 2 years. All fuel savings can be recovered," said Liu Peng.
Relevant data show that the consumption of urea for vehicles in China in 2011 was about 11,000 tons, which only accounted for 1% of the global car urea solution consumption. According to previous industry estimates, if strict emissions are implemented, the annual demand for vehicle urea can reach 7 million tons within five years.
Previously, people in the industry believe that once the national IV standard is fully implemented, the domestic demand for vehicle urea will inevitably increase significantly, and this market will have great potential. However, this market outlook did not appear as expected.
At present, China's production and use of vehicle urea is still at a relatively early stage. “Because the national IV standard has not been enforced in the country, the current vehicle urea is still concentrated in the passenger car field, and is mainly used in public transport systems in key cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.†A person familiar with the commercial vehicle market told reporters that In the second and third tier cities and rural areas where heavy commercial vehicles are more important, vehicle urea is hardly visible and it will take a long time to spread across the country.
It is understood that domestic production of urea for vehicles is dominated by small and medium-sized private enterprises. Production companies are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and other regions, and these companies do not have core sales channels, mainly through the online or supply of auto parts city to achieve sales. .
“The urea market for vehicles depends on the number of vehicles owned by the China IV model. The upstream volume has not been reached, and downstream market enthusiasm is also difficult to mobilize. If large-area production is produced, it will certainly face profitability risks due to insufficient demand in the short term.†Liu Pengxiang The reporter further stated that "In fact, the vehicle urea solution is not difficult to make in terms of preparation technology. We can produce it at any time."
Yang Zaichen analyzed that if the implementation information of the National IV standard is clear, with the help of existing mature channels such as Sinopec and PetroChina, the popularity of vehicle urea should not be too long.