Since 2011, affected by the restrictions on vehicle purchases and subsidy policies in some cities, the domestic auto market has entered a sluggish period. In the first half of the year, auto sales have fallen year-on-year and ring-to-month, and have even experienced negative growth.

As the first "Jin 9 Silver Ten" after the introduction of the automobile purchase restriction order, can the Beijing auto market replicate the past sales trend and release any signals for the future development of the auto market, becoming auto companies, distributors, and consumers? Very concerned about a problem.

The "gold nine silver ten" gold content decreased

Beijing Asian Games Village transaction market has become the "barometer" of the domestic auto market. During the “11th” period, the reporter came to the Asian Games Village automobile trading market. Compared to the hot scenes during the “11” period in previous years, this year’s trading hall looked desolate.

"It's a lot worse than last year, with a lot less traffic and sales." The first "Golden 9 Silver Ten" after the release of the restriction order was announced by a Dongfeng Honda dealer.

Mr. Wang, a consumer, stated that he is the number shaken in June. The auto market has been relatively sluggish. Therefore, he is waiting to see if he wants to wait for a larger price discount. "Fuck it up to a number, so pick it up more carefully. Fortunately, there is still time to wait and see."

There are not a few consumers who share the same attitude with Mr. Wang. In the past, "Jin 9 Silver 10" was also the peak season for dealers to promote sales. However, the price concessions expected by consumers did not change much with the arrival of the car season. Therefore, for those who have just obtained the qualification for buying a car, there are still half a year's time to consider and are not in a hurry to sell.

Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the Asian Games Village car market, said that at present, apart from the large discount rate for individual models, the overall auto market has not experienced a significant price drop. The Camry, Accord, New Passat, and New Regal have all added different levels of discounts, but the discount rate has remained at a relatively small range, and the great discounts expected by consumers have not appeared.

The lack of major interest in the auto market

According to the data released by the Passenger Vehicles Association, in August, the sales volume of domestic narrow passenger vehicles was 910.96 million, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year and an increase of 7.2% from the previous month. Although year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter sales were positive, cumulative sales from January to August increased by 8.7% year-on-year, which was a drop of 0.6% from January to July. In response, Rao Da, the secretary general of the association, said that this shows that the market has not shown any signs of improvement.

Some experts said that from the current policy and market conditions, the future of the automotive market is still lacking major positive factors.

On the one hand, new energy-saving subsidies may be introduced in the near future, and standards will increase. This means that the number of models that can enjoy the subsidy is reduced, and it also means that the subsidy for the vehicle price is reduced.

On the other hand, Beijing's purchase restriction order and the increasing price of Shanghai's private car license all indicate that the Beijing-Shanghai auto market is still stable, and there will be no major breakthrough. The Beijing-Shanghai auto market has a meaning of “wind vane” for the national market.

In addition, due to delays in the adjustment of the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, it is more difficult to cut the price of oil in the near future, and the overall spending of vehicles is further increasing. Undoubtedly, these factors have weakened the power of "Golden September 9, Silver 10".

In the fourth quarter, the auto market remains stable

Yan Jinghui said that various negative factors have caused the growth of the Beijing auto market to be sluggish, and sales may have declined slightly in October.

Automobile expert Jia Xinguang also holds the same view. He said that in most self-owned brand models that enjoy energy-saving subsidies, consumers are very sensitive to prices. Although the number of subsidies is not large, it may be a determinant factor in whether they purchase. After the announcement of the new energy-saving policy, the sales of most self-owned brand models will decline due to the improvement of energy-saving subsidies.

Su Hui, executive vice chairman of the branch of the China Auto Circulation Association’s tangible market segment, said that due to various factors, Beijing’s fourth-quarter auto market will remain largely stable and there will be no major breakthrough.

On the one hand, Beijing will not introduce a policy on driving automobile consumption in the near future, and the auto sales market will remain stable. At the same time, restrictions on lines, parking fees, oil prices and other factors are bad news for the automotive market. On the other hand, the implementation of the new energy-saving subsidies policy means that the threshold will increase, and the number of vehicles entering the market will also be reduced, which will not be able to achieve significant sales promotion.