In 2011, the domestic rubber market was so sad and happy that the whole year presented a general roller coaster market, and the trend between different types of rubber was not as uniform as before. In terms of natural rubber, due to the greater influence of the futures market, natural rubber futures rushed to the highest point of 4,35500 yuan/ton in February, and all the way down to December, dropping to 24,160 yuan/ton. Affected by futures, the domestic spot market trended close to the natural rubber futures market and began to fall in February.

In terms of synthetic rubber, the market is in a turbulent upward trend from January to August 2011. The main influencing factors are the continuous overhaul of domestic companies and the continued tight supply of market resources. In addition, due to the tight supply of butadiene in the United States, the arbitrage space in the Asian market is relatively large, and the external disk of butadiene has been constantly rising. The cost side is given to the synthetic rubber market to support the market. Therefore, the overall market rises from January to August. After August, due to the continuous expansion of the European debt crisis and the appreciation of the renminbi, the operating rate of the rubber products industry in China continued to decline. Coupled with a sharp fall in butadiene, the synthetic rubber market began to decline in August. By the end of the year, butadiene rubber fell to 23,800 yuan / ton, SBR 1502 fell to 20,800 yuan / ton, 1712 fell to 17,000 yuan / ton.

Styrene butadiene rubber showed an inverted "V" shape trend

As of the end of 2011, the total domestic SBR production capacity was 1.31 million tons. The ESBR production capacity is 1,1555,000 tons/year, accounting for 88.17% of the total domestic SBR production capacity. There are two sets of domestic SSBR production facilities with a production capacity of 155,000 tons/year, accounting for 11.83% of the total production capacity of SBR. The increase in domestic production capacity mainly includes 100,000 tons/year of milk polybutadiene-butadiene rubber plant of Tianjin Lugang Petroleum Rubber Co., Ltd. and Fujian Lucky Rubber Chemical Co., Ltd., and 100,000 tons/year of polybutylene butadiene butadiene butadiene butadiene styrene produced by Shandong Huayu Chemical Plan in early 2012. Rubber device.

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's rubber processing industry, the domestic production of styrene-butadiene rubber can not meet the actual production needs, and it has to import a large amount every year. In the first 10 months of 2011, the import volume reached 362,900 tons. At the same time as imports, China's styrene-butadiene rubber also has a small amount of exports. As of November 2011, exports have reached 106,900 tons.

In 2011, the domestic styrene-butadiene market showed an inverted “V” shape. In the first eight months, its market continued its upward stance, although there was a slight drop in the middle of the market, but the upward main line did not change. The main support for such a trend was as follows: In the first quarter of the country, fundamental strengths interacted with the ups and downs of capital behind and pushed up rubber prices. The domestic natural rubber futures market entered the era of 40,000 yuan in one fell swoop, paving the way for the butadiene styrene rubber market to rise. Second, the international economy picked up, the arbitrage window in Europe and the United States opened, and the price of raw material monomer butadiene on the outer disk kept pushing up. The cost support for styrene butadiene rubber was increasing. At the same time, the export volume of styrene-butadiene rubber was enlarged, and the domestic market supply was once tightened. Under the effect of both cost and supply, the butadiene benzene market gained momentum after April. Subsequently, due to the third quarter of the same type of product butadiene rubber plant cluster inspection function, the market quickly warming. At this time, the market's rally also stimulated the SBR market to rise. Domestic butadiene benzene prices reached an all-time high of 34,300 yuan/ton in early August, up 49.13% from the beginning of the year. However, the crisis behind the market is very heavy. In the first half of the year, domestic interest rates continued to increase, tightening funding. The cost of start-up of the downstream tire factory increased, and it was necessary to stop production or reduce production to reduce overall pressure. The sudden change in the international economic environment, Standard & Poor's downgrading of the US sovereign credit rating opened the chapter of the economic crisis in Europe and the United States, and it became the trigger for the declining domestic rubber highs. The buoyancy of butylbenzene thus started to fall out of control. In just three months, the price of butyralbenzene fell back to the beginning of the rising period in September 2010. In the fourth quarter, the fluctuation range of SBR decreased significantly. As the raw material butadiene prices continued to increase, and the downstream demand was gradually declining, the trend of butadiene butadiene was stagnant and it was a dilemma.

Butadiene rubber undulating

The production of butadiene rubber in China is increasing year by year. In 2011, a number of domestic devices were expanded. As of the end of December, the new production capacity was 130,000 tons. If the total domestic production capacity was put into production, it would increase by 21.14% over 2010.

With the rapid development of China's rubber products and other industries, the demand for butadiene rubber has also rapidly increased. In the first 11 months of 2011, the domestic apparent consumption of butadiene rubber reached 694,700 tons.

From the second half of 2010, the domestic Shunde market continued to oscillate higher. This market has continued until the first two months of early 2011. With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream tires, rubber products, and shoe-making enterprises have often stopped working due to the unsustainable cost pressure caused by the continuous rise in raw rubber prices. Even if the company did not stop working, the start-up load was also low. The weak demand has dragged Shun Ding into the downtrend channel. At the end of April and early May, due to the high market inventories and the decline in natural rubber prices, the decline in prices accelerated. In June, the market of Shunde was highlighted and reversal, and the market was rapidly and dramatically increased. In addition to the increase in raw material butadiene price boost, the domestic manufacturers installed in early July to reduce the market supply package inspection and reduce the supply of the market has become the biggest force, the market price reached a historical high. However, after the crazy gains, the euro zone debt crisis, commodity prices plummeted, the risk aversion of market users increased, have thrown goods dragging down the market sharply slumped, the market price continued to impact the lowest in the year.
Influencing factors

For the whole year of 2011, the trend of the domestic synthetic rubber market is mainly affected by the following factors. 1. Sales policies of Sinopec and PetroChina major sales companies for plastics. 2. The related products, natural rubber futures, spot ups and downs for the market to pull up or suppress the role. 3. The price of upstream raw material butadiene rises and falls to support the cost of plastic. 4. Downstream tires and rubber products companies have experienced severe production cuts and production stoppages due to increased production costs, which has led to a significant weakening of demand for rubber compounds, resulting in frequent priceless market conditions. 5. The impact of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States continues to spread, and there are too many ambiguous factors. The international market responds sensitively, and the prices have skyrocketed and plummeted, disrupting the operational mentality of commodity producers.

The important point to mention is that from the perspective of the distribution of rubber consumption, tire consumption accounts for 60% of rubber consumption. Therefore, the prosperity of the automotive industry will directly affect the consumption of rubber. From January to November 2011, the production and sales of automobiles reached 16,870,300 units and 16,815,600 units, an increase of 2.00% and 2.56% year-on-year. The output of rubber tires in the country reached 75.809 million, an increase of 8.46% year-on-year. Among them, the output of radial tires in China was 360 million, accounting for 47.45% of the total output. Judging from the output of all provinces and cities, in the first 11 months of 2011, the output of rubber tires in Shandong Province reached 28126.5, an increase of 3.41% year-on-year, accounting for 37.10 % of the country's total output. Followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces and cities. From the point of view of market tracking throughout the year, although the prices of rubber raw materials have declined in the second half of the year, the profitability of the tire industry is still not good. Affected by the European debt crisis and tire export anti-dumping, the profitability of tire companies declined in the second half of the year, and the overall operating rate of the industry fell to around 60%.

Looking ahead to the 2012 market for natural rubber, from the perspective of the external market, European debt concentration is due to expire and the economic recession reduces rubber demand. At the same time, 2012 was the year of the election of various countries, and the global financial market was in danger. On the fundamentals of natural rubber, the global economic slowdown has slowed down the production and sales of automobiles, weakened tire consumption, and the weak demand for rubber. The supply of origin has been steadily rising. At the same time, the rising stocks in the domestic market are also suppressing rubber prices. In 2012, the Jiaozhou market was unsatisfactory, and the probability of continuing the weak pattern in the first quarter was greater. However, we need to pay attention to the final resolution of the European debt issue next year and whether the easing policies for growth in emerging countries can be introduced.

Synthetic rubber has many uncertainties in terms of supply, demand, economy, policy, and downstream. Expansion of domestic installations continued, but demand growth slowed. Due to the firm price of raw material butadiene, the return of the Spring Festival due to cost support or will drive the synthetic rubber market higher. However, at the time of hearing, some shipments will be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the risk of high butadiene prices will increase. Attention will also need to be paid to the recovery of downstream factories. It may show a narrow rise in the first half of the year, and the overall trend of rational decline in the second half. It is expected that the year's high may appear at the beginning of the second quarter or the end of the third quarter. It is expected that domestic synthetic rubber will continue to maintain consolidation in 2012, and the sales companies will not be under pressure to cut their prices. In the long term, because terminal companies cannot bear the current high-priced products, it is difficult for synthetic rubber to show a continuous upward trend if there is no substantial improvement in demand.

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