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"In the future development of the heavy-duty truck market, we cannot underestimate the increase in the number of camps, and the heavy-duty truck industry still has a few good days to pass."
On October 14th, at the 4th International Forum on Heavy Commercial Vehicles, Yao Wei, chief editor of Fangde.com, analyzed the impact of the new economic policy on the development of the commercial vehicle industry.
In his speech, Yao Wei mentioned that during the nationwide implementation of the "campus reform and increase" on August 1, this year, the reform of "comprehensive reform" will be carried out on the "national economy, logistics industry, and heavy truck companies." It has an important impact.
In addition, Yao Wei also pointed out that the sales of the 62,000 heavy-duty trucks market in September (a substantial increase of 44.8% from the 42.80 million vehicles in the same period of last year), except for the moderate economic recovery this year, the substantial reduction in inventory, and the accumulation of three models by dealers, etc. "Budget reform and increase" is also one of the most important factors.
Have a major impact on the economy
What is the impact on the economy of "changing the value of the business"? Yao Wei said that this can compare the impact of the VAT reform in the manufacturing industry 20 years ago.
Yao Wei believes that since the establishment of the socialist market economic system in 1992, two policies have had a major impact on the Chinese economy: one is the reform of value-added tax; the other is the accession to the WTO. “The VAT reform has changed the tax system of the entire country, which not only reduces the repetitive taxation but also promotes the specialization of labor.â€
“But the VAT reforms in 1993 were limited to manufacturing. In the past 20 years, China’s manufacturing industry has grown rapidly and its competitiveness has increased dramatically. There are 'Made in China’ products around the world, and tertiary industries that were not involved at the time—services. Industry, has been slow to develop." Yao Wei said.
Yao Wei said that in the developed countries, the proportion of the tertiary industry reached 70%. For example, the United States accounted for 75.3%, France accounted for 72.4%, Japan accounted for 68.1%, and South Korea accounted for 55.1%. However, the "Reform and Opening-up Economic and Social Development Achievement Report" shows that during the 30 years of reform and opening up, after three optimizations of the industrial structure, China's tertiary industry accounted for only 40.1%, far behind developed countries.
“After the VAT reform in 1993, the manufacturing industry gained rapid development. This also set a model for the reform of the service industry.†Yao Wei speculated that the nationwide implementation of reforms to reform the “service reform†of the service industry will be implemented. Powerful promotion of the development of the domestic service industry will also bring about the next round of new growth in the Chinese economy.
Yao Wei also emphasized that the new government has made the service industry an economic priority. “Professor Li Keqiang proposed that we should not only seek 'made in China' but also call 'Chinese creation'.â€
Improve the professionalism of the logistics industry
Yao Wei pointed out that from the perspective of the impact of the “business reform†on domestic industries, it can be said that the logistics industry is also an industry that has been affected a lot.
"This policy will greatly increase the degree of intensification of China's logistics industry and allow some individual transporters to quickly withdraw from the market." Yao Wei said that the implementation of the reform of "reform by business reform" will change the excessive number of retail investors in the existing logistics industry. pattern.
“In the past, many individual transporters could not issue invoices and would look for logistics companies to issue invoices through forms such as affiliation. The tax point was 3%. However, it is now necessary to issue shipping invoices, and the tax point is 11%. This tax rate allows individual shipping. Households are completely unprofitable, and as a result, more and more individual transporters can no longer operate on their own, but become part of larger logistics companies or directly become drivers.†Yao Wei explained that the reformed transport Taxes will force more and more individual transporters to exit the market.
On the other hand, logistics companies are also faced with organizational changes. “In the past, many logistics companies had outsourced their operations. The more packages they had, the finer the division of labor, and the more serious the repetitive taxes. Now, after changing to VAT, the competitiveness of these specialized logistics companies will also increase.†Yao Wei said.
Yao Wei judged that in the future China's logistics industry will tend to exist in the form of existence of developed countries, with companies as the main body, rather than individuals. "This rapid transition will start with the 'campaign increase'."
Good for future heavy truck market
What will be the impact on the heavy truck companies after the implementation of the "Camp Reinforcement Plus"?
Yao Wei predicts that after the implementation of “Zhan Gai Zengâ€, it will have two impacts on the heavy truck market: First, to promote the speed of vehicle renewal, and second, to promote users to improve the grade of vehicles.
"After the increase of the camp, the purchase of new cars can offset sales tax." Yao Wei believes that this fact is placed in front of heavy truck users, will prompt users to replace new cars in advance. If, for example, the user needs to pay 400,000 taxes in the same month, after the purchase of a new car can reach 100,000, while the purchase of car 100,000 yuan is still its own capital, users will naturally tend to change the new car.
"In the future, the quality of vehicles in the domestic heavy-duty truck market will be higher and higher." Yao Wei explained that after the implementation of "reform from business operations," the more expensive the heavy-duty card a user purchases, the more it can be deducted. Naturally, it tends to purchase more expensive and better quality heavy truck products. "In addition, manual replacement is also a problem. Users who purchase high-quality heavy trucks and run for several more months each month can bring additional benefits. Although the paid human salaries cannot be deducted from VAT, the cost of buying a car can be deducted. In the past, there was a balance between buying a car and manpower. Now buying a car can reduce the value-added tax by 17%. Therefore, the balance between vehicles and labor costs will be broken, and the value of vehicles tends to be higher."
It can be seen that regardless of the tertiary industry in the national economy, the logistics industry, and the heavy truck companies, the implementation of the “business reform†should not be overlooked.
In Yao Wei’s view, thanks to the loosening of the economy by the new government, and in particular the loosening of supply, after the implementation of “reform from businessâ€, the Chinese heavy truck market will usher in a new upsurge. “In the long run, I may not be optimistic about the heavy truck market, but in the next few years, the heavy truck market in China will still grow, and the heavy truck industry will have a few years of good days.â€