The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24 o'clock on August 18. Due to the strong rebound in international oil prices, many institutions predict that domestic oil prices will rise.
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According to data released by Zhuochuang Information, as of August 16, the rate of change of crude oil was 4.24%, corresponding to the adjustment of gasoline and diesel to 110 yuan / ton, equivalent to 93 yuan gasoline rose 0.08 yuan / liter, 0 diesel increased by 0.09 yuan / liter .
According to Longzhong Information Monitoring, it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be raised by 150-170 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 0.11-0.14 yuan per liter.
During the current round of pricing, international oil prices continued to rise. As of August 16, the US WTI crude oil futures rose to 46.58 US dollars per barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose to 49.23 US dollars per barrel, compared with the closing price on August 2, the increase was 17.89% and 17.78%.
“The rise in international oil prices is mainly influenced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Saudi Arabia’s remarks,†said Wang Qianqian, an analyst at Longzhong Information.
On August 8, OPEC hinted that it might restart the frozen production negotiations, and the international oil price rebounded strongly. On August 12, Saudi Arabia hinted or adopted any measures to stabilize the oil price. The market hopes for frozen production will reignite and oil prices will continue to rise.
In the domestic oil market, Zhongyu Information analyst Zhang Jin said that due to the increase in travel, the demand for gasoline has increased slightly. The stocks of the main and local refineries have continued to decline. Recently, refining companies have been overhauled, and the market supply and demand situation has improved.
Talking about the trend of international oil prices in the future, Wang Qianqian believes that the possibility of real oil production reduction by oil-producing countries is very small. It is not enough to ensure that crude oil continues to rebound sharply. The oversupply and weak demand will still be the core of curbing oil prices. Negative factors. Therefore, the future domestic oil price does not rule out the possibility of downward adjustment.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Li Wei pointed out that objectively, the road to frozen production is still uncertain, and there are many internal contradictions that need to be resolved between oil producing countries. Moreover, if the international oil price continues to rise, it will have to face the suppression of the previous resistance level of 50 US dollars / barrel.
"From the current oil price trend, the upward momentum has been slightly weak. Therefore, in the short term, the international oil price will fall back and enter the shock adjustment stage again," Li said. "It is expected that the international oil price will be 45-45 in the next price adjustment cycle. Fluctuations within the range of $50/barrel."
Previously, the average price of international crude oil was on the threshold of 40 US dollars per barrel. As a result, domestic oil prices appeared "two consecutive losses." The last time it was lowered to August 4th, steam and diesel were lowered by 220 yuan and 215 yuan per ton, respectively, the largest decline in the year.
