According to Tecnon's estimation, the global demand for acrylonitrile will increase at an average annual rate of 2% to 2.5% in the next few years. The demand for acrylonitrile fibers will remain stable, and demand from the ABS market will increase at an average annual rate of 5%. The speed will increase, and the demand for acrylamide will increase at an average annual rate of 6% to 7%.
Analysts said that the high cost of raw materials and China's new production capacity of acrylonitrile fibers have prompted production capacity in Europe and Japan to close down on a larger scale. In 2005, the global shutdown of acrylonitrile production capacity is more than the new production capacity.
According to statistics, in 2005, approximately 420,000 tons/year of acrylonitrile production capacity was shut down globally, and the new capacity was 316,000 tons/year. Sterling Chemical Company shut down the 360,000-ton/year plant in the United States in 2005 and withdrew from the acrylonitrile business. Mitsui Chemicals also closed the 60,000-ton/year facility in Osaka, Japan, in May 2005. In the third quarter of 2005, Lucite International closed its 4.5-million-ton facility in Texas. At the same time, BP's 260,000-ton/year acrylonitrile plant in China was put into production in July 2005. Innovene also increased the capacity of the acrylonitrile plant in Cologne, Germany, to 60,000 tons/year to 35.5 in December 2005. 10,000 tons/year. Analysts believe that as long as crude oil and propylene prices remain high, profit pressure on the acrylonitrile-acrylonitrile fiber industry chain will remain.
One of the highlights of the current acrylonitrile industry is the development of a new process for acrylonitrile production from propane. It is reported that this process will reduce the production cost of propylene ammoxidation process, which is the mainstream process of the current acrylonitrile industry, by 30%, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of downstream products. Asahi Kasei Corporation recently announced that it has signed an agreement with Thailand's PTT Chemical Co., Ltd. to plan production of acrylonitrile in Thailand using this new process.
Raw material costs remain high No less market supply situation tighter Global acrylonitrile plant high load and low efficiency operation
In recent years, many sets of acrylonitrile units have been shut down globally, causing a tight supply situation in the acrylonitrile market. The plant operating rate is already at a high level of 90%. How will the acrylonitrile industry develop in the next few years? In response, an analyst at TecnonOrbiChem in London recently pointed out that the high price of propylene raw materials and the pressure of not being able to completely transfer raw materials to the downstream have made the global acrylonitrile production profitability still relatively weak. Before the new capacity is put into operation in 2008-2009, the operating rate of the global acrylonitrile plant will remain at the current high level.