In the domestic market, the supply of refined oil is still dominated by PetroChina and Sinopec. In order to protect the price system of domestic refined oil, Sinopec exported a large amount of diesel to the Far East, causing the price of diesel in the region to plummet.

According to another report, on May 9th, it was time to adjust the prices of refined oil products. According to the data from the monitoring agency, the crude oil change rate as of May 7 was 1.43%. The window on the 9th is expected to open as scheduled and cash on the 10th. However, some researchers believe that the price adjustment may not be realized because the price increase is less than 50 yuan/ton.

According to the 21st Century Business Herald, China’s sudden increase in diesel exports quickly broke the balance of supply and demand in the Far East market. “As the crude oil price is high, the gross profit of the refining business is now very low, generally around 10%. However, the sudden increase in Sinopec’s exports has caused the market price to plummet, completely consuming up the refining margins.” Informed sources frankly said.

According to data from the CBI Research Center, China’s diesel export volume has also been increasing since October 2012. Not only has it increased month-on-month, but it has also seen an alarming increase compared to the same period of last year: October’s 144,000 tons, an increase from the same period last year. 9.1%; in November, 300,000 tons, an increase of 123.9%; in December, 360,000 tons, an increase of 490.2%; in January of this year, 380,000 tons, an increase of 295.8%; in February, 250,000 tons, an increase of 242.5%; 420,000 tons, an increase of 650% over the same period last year.

With the substantial increase in China's diesel exports, the average price of Singapore's diesel market has continued to decline, slipping from the initial $130.27/bbl to $117.19/bbl in April this year, a drop of about 11.2%.

Since 2012, China’s economic growth rate has dropped, and the construction of large oil-consuming households has been maintained at a relatively low level. Therefore, the consumption of diesel fuel has declined. "Gas can still increase, in order to ensure the supply of petrol, Sinopec and other had to maintain a higher operating rate, but the sale of diesel with gasoline at the same time has become a problem." The source said.

While gasoline consumption has been met, diesel has been surplus. Although the quantity of hundreds of thousands of tons is not as large as the total domestic consumption, if they are put into the domestic market, they will still impact domestic diesel prices, which is also a reluctance of the two major groups.

In 2012, China’s diesel consumption amounted to approximately 170 million tons, and the export volume of 420,000 tons of diesel in March this year appears to be very small. However, Sinopec is not willing to leave these resources in the country – that would impact its existing price system. .

"When there are excess resources in the market, terminal prices are not aligned with average prices, and they are not aligned with high prices. They will only approach the lowest prices. Only when low-cost resources are consumed, market supply and demand will be rebalanced. The price will rise, which is the short-term effect of the market,” said Zhong Jian, chief expert at the CBI Research Center.

"Even if you lose money for export, after all, this loss is much less than the loss caused by leaving excess resources in the country." There are dealers who support Zhong Jian's "short board" theory.

He pointed out that, after all, under the premise of the monopoly of crude oil and refined oil imports and exports under the monopoly of PetroChina, Sinopec, etc., the size of the domestic resource supply is still determined by the two major groups.

In fact, Sinopec and other companies had also used this strategy around 2009 to export domestic excess refined oil resources to tighten domestic supplies, thus maximizing the maintenance of terminal prices at the time.

According to relevant agency data, by the end of 2012, China's total refining capacity reached 640 million tons. With the new production capacity of Zhanjiang Zhongke Petrochemicals gradually put into production, the refining capacity will reach 750 million tons by 2015.

This is much faster than the growth of China's gasoline and diesel consumption planned by the National Development and Reform Commission, and it also means that the problem of excess diesel is also bound to exist for a long time.

According to the Securities Daily report, according to Treasure Island's calculations, as of the 8th working day of May 7, the reference price of crude oil (Brent, Brent, Dubai, ESPO) averaged US$101.872, a change rate of 1.43%. According to the “Ten Working Day Principles,” a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened on May 9 and will be cashed in the early morning on the 10th. It is expected that this time of gasoline and diesel will be increased by RMB 80-120/ton.

The Longzhong data shows that as of May 6th, the comprehensive change rate of major indicators crude oil varieties was 1.17%. On May 9th, the price adjustment window opened again and it is expected that the corresponding price adjustment range will be around RMB 75/ton.

However, Zhongyu Information Analyst Sang Lu believes that the daily valuation data under the current pricing mechanism changes greatly, this time the retail gasoline and diesel price adjustment rate is smaller, even less than 50 yuan / ton, so do not make adjustments Very likely.

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