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The first level, overseas investment. On the one hand, after the crisis, overseas capital markets have plummeted, which has had a large negative impact on China's overseas investment. The risk of overseas direct investment in China cannot be ignored. Some projects may face a series of risks such as shrinking asset prices, falling investment income, and extended investment recovery period.
On the other hand, the international financial crisis has caused many overseas stock markets to shrink sharply and asset prices have fallen sharply. Some company stock valuations have been at historic lows; some companies have sold assets or controlling stakes in order to tide over the current difficulties; some countries have substantially reduced Foreign investment barriers. All of these have created a series of potential opportunities for overseas direct or indirect investment for related companies and institutions in China. The longer the international financial crisis lasts, the greater the degree of damage and the slower the economic recovery, the more potential opportunities for overseas investment in China will be.
The second level, import and export trade. This international financial crisis has mainly occurred in developed countries and regions, and China’s general trade import and export target areas are mainly in developed countries and regions. Therefore, this crisis will have a major impact on China’s imports and exports, especially for China’s export-oriented economy. There will be an impact, and some export-oriented companies are facing the risk of difficult fund recovery and reduced orders. China's general trade export income, trade surplus, foreign exchange earnings and a series of macroeconomic indicators may all undergo important changes.
As far as China's imports are concerned, some countries may introduce policies favorable to the export of products based on self-help in production, such as lowering export tariffs, lowering export prices, and relaxing technical blockades. At present, the substantial adjustment of the prices of some commodities, such as petroleum, copper, and iron ore, has reduced the cost of importing related commodities in China, which is conducive to the import of related commodities. Chinese enterprises should seize this opportunity to expand the imports of technology, resources, shortages, and price advantage commodities according to their own needs and capabilities.
The third level, financial securities and insurance industry. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's financial industry is mainly reflected in interest rate linkages, exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on the operation of financial institutions; changes in the financial environment may have an important impact on bank loan business; risks of overseas financial institutions may be transmitted to It is set up in our country's branches. The impact on China's securities industry is mainly reflected in: stock price volatility and its impact on the operation, performance, and investment income of investors; the impact of stock price volatility on market financing functions and its impact on listed companies' IPO and refinancing. The impact on China's insurance industry is mainly reflected in the impact of interest rate fluctuations on the operation and performance of the insurance industry; and the impact of capital market fluctuations on the investment income of the insurance industry.
As far as the degree of influence is concerned, China's financial and securities insurance industry is somewhat open to the outside world, but it is still insufficient. This determines that the impact of the crisis is relatively limited. On the one hand, before the international financial and securities markets have stabilized, it is impossible for China's financial and securities markets to move out of the reverse unilateral market. On the other hand, the main factors affecting the future trend of China's financial and securities markets are still the domestic market environment and operating mechanisms. In the future, China will still stick to the path of financial reform, opening up, and innovation, but market supervision and risk prevention will be further strengthened.
The fourth level, the real estate industry. At the source, the crisis is a crisis in the real estate market. Therefore, the international financial crisis triggered by the real estate market will have many impacts on China's real estate industry: First, the real estate market in several first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and some second-tier cities may face some overseas investment. Cases of customers selling property and withdrawing funds; Second, based on the profound lesson of the US real estate market crisis, China will further regulate the development of the real estate market in the future, and will control the expansion of real estate demand and the skyrocketing price plunge in order to avoid the real estate market. The severe fluctuations caused systemic risks in the financial industry.
The fifth level, tourism. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's tourism industry is two-fold: On the one hand, countries that are deeply affected by the crisis may, based on the need to develop their own economies and increase employment, may introduce measures to promote the development of their tourism industry so as to attract more foreign countries. Tourists. Therefore, the residents of our country may be more convenient to travel abroad. The domestic tourism industry is facing the potential pressure of the diversion of tourist numbers. On the other hand, due to the economic recession caused by the financial crisis, the number of people entering overseas may be significantly reduced. Have a greater impact.
The sixth level, labor employment. The impact of the crisis on China’s labor employment is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, economic growth has slowed down, and new job opportunities may be relatively reduced. Therefore, there may be greater employment pressure in a certain period of time in the future. Second, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, unemployment financial workers in developed countries and regions such as the United States may flow to countries and regions less affected by the financial crisis. Therefore, China is facing a good opportunity to attract overseas financial talents, and the domestic financial industry may also face more severe competition for talents. However, in the long run, this kind of talent competition is very beneficial to the development of China's financial, securities, and insurance industries.
The seventh level, economic growth. The economic recession in the United States and other western developed countries will have a negative impact on the sustained high-speed economic growth in China. However, we should see that the current economic growth in China is significantly different from that of Western developed countries. At the same time, China’s economy is still an investment-driven economy, and there are still huge investment opportunities in such areas as railways, highways, airports, ports, power grids, urban infrastructure, and new rural construction. Once the impact of the international financial crisis is deeper and there is a large decline in GDP growth, China's investment-oriented economy still has ample room for development.
The eighth level, economic status. The complexity and difficulty of recovering the economy in the United States and other Western developed countries will be much greater than in our country. Therefore, under the circumstance that the growth rate will slow down in the next few years, the relative gap between China's total economic output and developed countries will shrink, and China’s status in the international community will rise. Specifically, the pricing of some commodities may consider the "factors of Chinese companies to negotiate," rather than the pattern of "what to demand" and "what to fry" and "what to rise" in the international market in the past.
Chinese economy faces eight opportunities and challenges
After the US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into an international financial crisis, it has had a wide and profound impact on the world economy. In the face of the crisis, we must not only see the challenges that this crisis brings to the Chinese economy in transition, but also the opportunities it contains. Then, as China’s economy becomes more and more closely connected with the world today, the international financial crisis will have an impact on China’s overseas investment, import and export, financial and securities insurance, real estate, tourism, labor and employment, economic growth, and economic status. What opportunities will it contain?