This article is a research report by Wang Qing, director of the Market Circulation Research Office of the Development Research Center of the State Council. The original title is "Some Thoughts on the Development of New Energy Vehicles in China". The length is longer. We will distribute it in three journals. This article is the second. Article.
The first one: China's new energy vehicle development diagnosis report (1): The main strategic objectives need to be clear 3. Use innovative thinking and policies to encourage and support technological innovation. In terms of innovation, we must first distinguish the innovation and innovation-driven stage of the catch-up phase. Innovation. The former is mainly aimed at specific, prior art innovations; while the latter is mainly aimed at innovations in basic, cutting-edge and forward-looking technologies. These two types of innovation are associated with specific stages of economic, social and technological development.
The technical route and product development direction of the catch-up period are known and predictable. If there is no major deviation between the technical route and the resource allocation direction, it is possible to achieve the goal of technical catch-up through the national system, large investment, and large projects. However, in the stage of innovation drive, technology development is changing with each passing day, the technical route is very uncertain, and the innovative ideas based on the catch-up phase have great technical and market risks, and the probability of failure is high. In countries such as Japan, whether it is technology catch-up or original innovation, there are successful experiences and lessons of failure.
From the perspective of technological innovation in the field of new energy vehicles, the gap between China and foreign countries is far less than that of traditional cars, and objectively has the possibility of “overtaking the curve”. China also has the advantages of developing new energy vehicles, such as early start, complete industrial system, abundant resources, and great market potential. However, it must also be acknowledged that China still has many shortcomings in terms of consumption concepts, stages and innovation conditions. Especially in terms of system, the ecology of innovation and entrepreneurship still has a considerable gap with developed countries; and we are still accustomed to formulating and implementing preferential policies by adopting the technical route of technology catch-up phase, clarifying products and supporting specific enterprises.
In today's ever-changing and unpredictable innovations, even top scientists are unable to accurately predict future technological trends. If we continue to use the past methods and innovate with the advantage of "concentrating forces," it is easy to see the result of "the whole army is annihilated." To form a good innovation ecology, we must give full play to the innovation enthusiasm of many enterprises, explore different technical routes through decentralized decision-making, and make successful people stand out on the basis of many enterprises' exploration, innovation and even failure. Therefore, successful innovation countries are more concerned with the ability to innovate, or the emergence of innovative enterprises and innovative technologies. Advanced technologies and enterprises are only the result of the improvement of ecological efficiency. If you pay too much attention to specific technologies and enterprises, you will be able to turn the cart before the horse. Because of this, Tesla will be born in Silicon Valley instead of Detroit.
If China's technological innovation can't jump out of the specific technology route, consume subsidies for specific technologies, and rely on the traditional industry access supervision system, there will be no “Tesla”-type enterprises in China's new energy vehicle field, because the ternary battery is the basis. It is impossible for enterprises to obtain innovation policy support, nor to obtain auto production qualifications, nor to make announcements.
The innovation and development of China's new energy vehicle technology should try to avoid the passiveness caused by the mistakes in the technical route and market judgment. It is necessary to adopt a more open governance concept and promote opportunities for equal participation in all kinds of technological innovations, so that all innovative entities can strive for consumption subsidies on the basis of reasonable evaluation criteria.
Fourth, to enhance the effectiveness of new energy vehicle technology and industrialization policies To improve the effectiveness of the policy, we must first define the boundaries between the government and the market. The so-called government must play its role better in doing what it is supposed to do in the new stage of development, rather than doing more. For the innovation and industrialization of new energy vehicles, it mainly includes: establishing a good scientific innovation system (rather than more involved in competitive technology); establishing various public services and common technology platforms; cultivating various professional talents; Strong financial system; strengthen intellectual property protection system; create a unified and open, competitive and orderly market system; implement reasonable consumption and infrastructure construction incentives;
With the changes in the market development stage and technological innovation pattern, the formulation and implementation of support policies in the future should shift more from the production side to the demand side, and more to the specific technology and enterprises to “eat the partial meal” and to highlight the policy benefits. Sex. In this way, energy-saving and new energy vehicles of different technical routes can be divided into high and low lengths under the same ruler. Replacing centralized decision-making with decentralized decision-making, support and preferential policies should be changed from “throwing hydrangea” to “competing with martial arts”. Even if we think that electrification is the main transition route for the development of new energy vehicles in the future, consumers should use currency votes to win the winners of the main selection market, and avoid being passive when other technologies make major breakthroughs.
In terms of improving the effectiveness of policies, it involves all aspects of the innovation chain. The following is an example of production access and industry-university-research collaboration.
As new energy vehicle technologies have obvious integration innovation and cross-border innovation characteristics, they must exert the power of the market and enterprises to encourage the entry of cross-border capital, especially the Internet and key component companies. Until now, the main force of electric vehicle manufacturing in the future is no consensus in the industry. But in the medium and long term, smart cars or new mobile smart terminals are difficult to support by relying only on traditional car manufacturers. In this way, it is imperative for the current access and regulatory reforms: First, under the premise of strengthening safety and environmental protection supervision, we should appropriately relax the entry threshold for new energy vehicle production qualifications, guide cross-border innovation, and enrich product supply; Guided by the market and demand, we will create a fair and transparent competitive environment, break the protection of local and industry, and guarantee consumers' freedom of choice.
In 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Interim Provisions on the Investment Projects and Production Access Management of New Pure Electric Passenger Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises (Draft for Comment). Compared with the previous new energy vehicle production access management, the liberalization of the production of electric vehicles and the single-entry access standards are significant improvements. However, from the specific regulations, the threshold for access is still very high. For example, it must have more than 3 years of R&D experience, complete vehicle trial production capability, and complete prototype conditions for pure electric passenger car prototypes, including main manufacturing processes and equipment such as body manufacturing, power battery system integration, and vehicle assembly; Main production processes such as stamping, welding, painting, etc. The intensity of access is small, and the possibility of outsourcing business is eliminated, and to some extent, it is back to the traditional automobile access conditions. IT companies, Internet companies, component companies and even low-speed electric vehicle companies with strong innovation capabilities and power, especially for SMEs, have a relatively small chance of breaking ground in the development of new energy vehicles.
With regard to collaborative innovation of industry, university and research, there is currently no mature experience or model with universal and replicable meaning. A key issue is to form incentives for stakeholder compatibility. In many cases where the effect of production, education and research is not obvious, scientific research institutions believe that enterprises are eager for quick success, while enterprises believe that research institutions are not market-oriented, only concerned with the publication of papers and the identification of results through laboratories, and do not pay attention to the costs and processes in the process of industrialization. problem.
It is understandable that all parties have their own interests and claims. The problem lies in the innovative division of labor and the distribution of interests. At present, the state and relevant departments still play an important role in the allocation of innovative resources, and a large amount of resources are invested in scientific research institutions and colleges and universities. Under the conditions of lack of results derivative, scientific research personnel entrepreneurship guarantee and results and rights system, the results are reviewed and accepted. Papers and patent applications naturally become the main goal of research and development. Some projects require joint application by scientific research institutions and enterprises, which also leads to research and development for research and development, and even the phenomenon of “fishing” and so on.
To improve the synergy effect of industry, university and research, it is necessary to organize the process of technological innovation with enterprises as the main body of innovation. The matching reform is to lead the innovation resource allocation by enterprises, to clearly define the division of labor and goals of all parties involved, and to form an interest that takes into account the enthusiasm of all parties. Distribution mechanism. At the same time, it is also necessary for the state to accelerate the pace of reform in terms of scientific research personnel's entrepreneurship guarantee, job invention rights distribution, and innovation team derivative enterprises.