On June 28, 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Special Management Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2018 Edition)", which will take effect on July 28 this year. And this list may indirectly affect the pattern of China's auto industry. What is a negative list? The “negative list management model†refers to which economic sectors are not open to the government. Except for the restricted area on the list, other industries, fields and economic activities are permitted. However, from the negative list content of the 2018 version, some content has been cut compared with the previous version, so the new negative list has played a positive role in accelerating integration and promoting openness. The 2018 version of the negative list clearly stipulates that “the automobile industry: except for special vehicles and new energy vehicles, the Chinese stock ratio of automobile manufacturing is not less than 50%. The same foreign company can establish two or less productions in China. A joint venture of similar vehicle products. (Cancel the restriction of foreign-invested shares in commercial vehicles in 2020. In 2022, the ratio of foreign-invested shares in passenger vehicles will be abolished, and the same foreign company can establish two or more similar-type complete vehicle products in China. The restrictions of the joint venture)." For the new energy vehicle sector, this means that the number of foreign shares and foreign joint ventures in the field of new energy vehicles will be officially cancelled. According to the previous June 17 issue of the joint-stock share ratio released by the National Development and Reform Commission, after the cancellation of the foreign-funded shares of special vehicles and new energy vehicles in 2018, the foreign-funded shares of commercial vehicles were cancelled in 2020, and the foreign shares of passenger vehicles were cancelled in 2022. The limit of the ratio, while canceling the restrictions of the joint venture no more than two, through the five-year transition period, the automotive industry will be completely removed, which is also inconsistent with the regulations of the automotive industry in the manufacturing industry in the negative list of 2018 Hehe. So in the post-joint venture era, what kind of situation will new energy, joint venture and autonomy be? New energy sole proprietorship In fact, in the new energy field, which is the first to be the impulsive knife, many people speculated at the time that the new energy vehicle stock ratio will mean that the new energy production qualification will be canceled, but from the current difficulty in applying for new power to apply for qualifications What is certain is that the qualification review is necessary, especially for the new energy enterprises that invest in the construction of the factory than the wholly foreign-owned enterprises. In this regard, the automotive industry analyst Zhong Shi also said: "The ratio of new energy vehicles will be looser, because China's new energy market itself is not large, basically in the process of development, the stock will be more loose than the enlargement. †However, as the stock ratio is liberalized, more and more foreign-invested new energy auto companies may enter the Chinese new energy auto market in a sole proprietorship. The binding force of the new energy quasi-mortem will be smaller and smaller, such as Tesla. enterprise. The news that Tesla wants to set up a factory in China has long been a secret. Every time, it will be seen that domestic media has revealed that Tesla will establish a wholly-owned factory in China. According to the National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System, Tesla has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., in Shanghai on May 10. This has also triggered a lot of speculations from many outsiders about the construction of Tesla China. Some people say that the establishment of the Shanghai company by Tesla is paving the way for the future of Tesla, and even more media pointed out that Tesla The establishment of the Shanghai company means that Tesla will enter the Chinese market in the form of wholly-owned and domestically produced. Tesla has always used pure import methods and will face relatively large risks for a long time. According to the data, Tesla sold 14883 vehicles in the Chinese market last year, accounting for only 3% of the world's largest electric vehicle market. In February this year, China imported 2,323 pure electric vehicles from the United States, while Tesla accounted for 2,160 vehicles are the "big family" of imported electric vehicles. Therefore, although Tesla wants to face many difficulties in establishing a wholly-owned factory in China, at least the policy is good for it. Joint venture priority selection of quality enterprises In addition to the impact on new energy vehicles and special vehicles, in fact, the stock-to-release dispute is essentially a competition between the two parties for the market. In order to gain more voice and gain more interests, multinational auto companies naturally hope to let go of the joint-stock ratio. In this regard, the automobile industry analyst Zhong Shi once said: "The restriction that the joint venture can not exceed two, the foreign party has more voice and dominance, and the income situation of Chinese and foreign shareholders will undergo a relatively big change. It may increase the bargaining power and pressure on products and technology, so that the foreign party may be very cheap." From the joint venture projects of Jianghuai Volkswagen, Great Wall BMW, Zhongtai Ford, it will have a direct impact. Compared with the previous Sino-foreign automobile joint venture, the new round of automobile joint venture may not necessarily be a central enterprise or a large state-owned enterprise, but a high-quality joint venture automobile enterprise. If the enterprise is not high-quality, it can choose to build a wholly-owned enterprise. At the same time, some insiders also analyzed that it is expected that the short-term and medium-term stock ratio will not have a major impact on the operation and strategy of the joint venture vehicle. Many international auto companies, including BMW, Volkswagen and Ford, have timely stated that the cooperation model with Chinese partners will not change. However, China's passenger cars are developed and expanded from joint ventures. The proportion and number of joint ventures are more than other industries and fields. The history of the development of Chinese passenger cars is itself a joint venture history. At the same time, the passenger-car ratio was released in 2022, and there was a buffer time of nearly five years. With the collective ups of Chinese auto brands, today's foreign brands have already understood the importance of Chinese partners. Therefore, as long as they work together, they will achieve a win-win situation. Independent brand and foreign optimization cooperation From the perspective of domestic independent brands, foreign stocks have no direct impact on the liberalization of restrictions. There are certain indirect effects, mainly reflected in the market competition of domestic auto market. Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said: "I am positive, because the measures were made to protect my own brands, but now the independent brands have the corresponding strength in research and development. After the stock ratio is released, it can compete on the same stage, but it will promote the better development of independent brands." Therefore, for Chinese automakers like SAIC and GAC, which have deep consumer insight and localized R&D capabilities, and also have layout and technical reserves in the new four, the foreign side will only have more motivation to further deepen and Their cooperation. For the Chinese side, which relies heavily on joint venture blood transfusions, the liberalization of the stock ratio has opened up the inherent policy protection. If China does not actively adjust and boldly innovate, it will inevitably be abandoned and eliminated. It is foreseeable that with the liberalization of the share-based ratio restriction policy, the entire car enterprise will show a situation of superiority, which will accelerate the differentiation of the industry and promote the flow of resources to the enterprises with the highest efficiency and optimal management. 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A negative list of foreign investment approvals will be introduced, how should the auto companies in the post-joint venture era respond?
Core Tip: On June 28, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Special Management Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2018 Edition)â€, which will take effect on July 28 this year. This list may indirectly affect the pattern of China's auto industry. In the post-joint venture era, what will happen to new energy, joint ventures and autonomy?